Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 90,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week, while demand was 81,000 tons, down 1.21% week-on-week, indicating persistent weak demand. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,525 - 8,805 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 30,200 tons, down 2.58% week-on-week, and the September production schedule is forecasted to be 126,700 tons, down 3.79% month-on-month. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, but the cost support has weakened. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51,820 - 53,950 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Bearish. The supply and demand situation shows weak demand, and the cost support has weakened [6]. - Basis: Bullish. On September 10, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11th contract was 285 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Bearish. The social inventory was 537,000 tons, down 0.73% week-on-week; the sample enterprise inventory was 170,800 tons, down 1.55% week-on-week; and the main port inventory was 117,000 tons, down 1.68% week-on-week [8]. - Market Chart: Bullish. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11th contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: Bearish. The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly [8]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Bullish. Although production has decreased, demand in downstream sectors such as wafers, cells, and modules shows an upward trend, with module production in a profitable state [10]. - Basis: Bearish. On September 10, the price of N-type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11th contract was -1,335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - Inventory: Neutral. The weekly inventory was 211,000 tons, down 0.93% week-on-week, at a historically low level [10]. - Market Chart: Bullish. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11th contract closed above the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: Bullish. The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [10]. - Expectation: Supply schedules continue to decrease, while demand in downstream sectors continues to increase, with overall demand showing continuous recovery, but cost support has weakened [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon: Provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of industrial silicon contracts, as well as data on its downstream sectors such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [16][17][18]. - Polysilicon: Presents data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of polysilicon contracts, as well as data on its downstream sectors such as wafers, cells, and modules [18].
工业硅期货早报-20250911
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-11 03:30