贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Fed rate - cut expectations (weak non - farm data pushing the probability of a September rate cut to 100%) and geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment support the gold price. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases (China has increased holdings for 10 consecutive months) and the weakening dollar further enhance the value of gold allocation. The medium - to - long - term driving factors are solid, but short - term data volatility risks should be watched[3]. - Copper: In the short term, copper prices may first decline and then rise. The weak US employment data may continue to affect copper prices, and in the short term, it may still seek support around 79,000 yuan per ton. If the non - farm data does not ferment further, combined with the expected increase in the copper rod operating rate and the decline in LME copper inventories, copper prices may find support at the 20 - day moving average and are still expected to rise above 80,000 yuan per ton[17]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum is oscillating strongly, but there is pressure above. To break through the 21,000 pressure level, the peak - season expectations need to be fulfilled, demand should improve significantly, and inventories should start to decline. With policy support, there is also a bottom for the aluminum price, and the weekly price range is 20,500 - 21,000[37]. - Zinc: The supply side is currently in a surplus state. The market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" are average. Currently, it is reported that many galvanizing plants have reduced or stopped production, and the operating rate needs to be continuously monitored. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal zinc prices in terms of inventory is becoming more obvious. In the short term, it is mainly oscillating, observing the macro and consumption[66]. - Nickel: Nickel ore's September first - phase benchmark price has declined, mainly affected by the recent correction of nickel prices, with a firm premium; other nickel product benchmark prices are basically stable, and MIHP has a certain upward trend due to new - energy demand. The new - energy sector still has support, and the overall supply is relatively tight, expected to remain strong. Nickel - iron also shows a strong trend, but the narrowing spread between stainless - steel and nickel - iron may limit the further rise of nickel - iron prices. Stainless steel maintains an oscillating trend, and there are still some games at the spot level[81]. - Tin: In the short term, the weak US employment data may affect tin prices for 1 - 2 days. After that, despite certain demand pressure, tin prices are expected to return to 270,000 yuan per ton due to the tight supply side[96]. - Lithium Carbonate: The current market has entered an oscillating adjustment stage. It is recommended to focus on the actual downstream receiving situation. If the conversion of orders into actual transactions is less than expected, the market may maintain an oscillating and weak pattern; if the receiving demand is gradually released, the price is expected to be supported[106]. - Silicon: Currently, attention should be paid to the Silicon Industry Conference this Wednesday. Recently, there are many rumors, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may be affected. There is no good strategy for the time being, and they are regarded as oscillating. In the short term, the risk of price fluctuations caused by news stimuli should be guarded against[115]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Influence Factors: Fed rate - cut expectations, geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment, global central banks' gold purchases, and the weakening dollar support the gold price[3]. - Market Data: Provided price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratio, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold and the US dollar index, and gold and silver long - term fund holdings[4][9][12]. Copper - Price Outlook: Short - term price may first decline and then rise, affected by US employment data, copper rod operating rate, and LME copper inventories[17]. - Market Data: Presented copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads. Also provided data on copper imports, processing fees, scrap - to - refined copper price differences, and warehouse receipts[18][23][33]. Aluminum - Aluminum: The short - term trend is oscillating strongly with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support. The market is affected by macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and inventory conditions[37]. - Alumina: The supply is in surplus, and factors such as aluminum - bauxite imports, inventory increases, and production resumptions after environmental restrictions affect its price[38]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax - return policies may support the alloy price. The futures - market trend generally follows that of Shanghai aluminum, with cost - side support[39]. - Market Data: Provided aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data[40][53][62]. Zinc - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply side is in surplus, and the demand side's expectations for the peak season are average. LME inventories are decreasing, showing a strong - external and weak - internal pattern[66]. - Market Data: Presented zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data[67][72][77]. Nickel - Market Conditions: Nickel ore prices are affected by nickel price corrections, new - energy demand supports MIHP, and the supply of new - energy products is relatively tight. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel are oscillating, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as the US dollar index and export difficulties[81]. - Market Data: Provided nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, inventory data, and prices and inventories of related products such as nickel ore, nickel - iron[82][87][95]. Tin - Price Trend: Short - term price is affected by US employment data, and then may rise due to tight supply. The production decline in August was affected by factory maintenance and reduced tin - concentrate imports[96]. - Market Data: Presented tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related industry indices such as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index[97][100][101]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Stage: Currently in an oscillating adjustment stage. The market trend depends on the downstream receiving situation, and there is a lot of market speculation[106]. - Market Data: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, price differences, and inventory data[107][109][113]. Silicon - Market Outlook: Attention should be paid to the Silicon Industry Conference. Affected by rumors, it is in an oscillating state, and the risk of price fluctuations caused by news stimuli should be guarded against[115]. - Market Data: Presented industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, price differences, and production, inventory, and cost data[116][117][131].