Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The MPOB report shows an inventory increase to 2.2 million tons, and the unexpected decline in the first 10 - day export data is bearish. There is a risk of the futures price falling below 4,400 ringgit and continuing to weaken. In the domestic market, it will first test the support at 9,000 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil continues to decline, domestic palm oil may follow suit [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the USDA report to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast, but the high - quality rate of U.S. soybeans is high, so the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. In the absence of Chinese purchases, the USDA may lower the U.S. soybean export forecast. The approaching harvest and concentrated supply pressure will weigh on the market. In the domestic market, although the demand season is coming, the current supply is excessive, and the basis quotation will fluctuate slightly [1]. Meal - The high - quality rate of U.S. soybeans is still high, suppressing market bullish sentiment. The U.S. soybean supply is strong and demand is weak, while Brazil's premium is strong, supporting domestic costs. Recently, domestic concerns about future supply have eased, and with soybean auctions, the spot market is loose. Oil mills' soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level, and weak terminal purchasing enthusiasm suppresses the basis. However, the cost provides good support, and the decline space of domestic meal is limited. The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is not expected to be loose [3]. Pork - The slaughter volume of farmers has stabilized, and the reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. Some areas have seen secondary fattening, which supports the spot price. Although the spot pressure has been realized, the price has reached a low level, and the room for further decline is limited. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can absorb the supply is uncertain. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. The market strengthened today due to the Ministry of Agriculture's meeting on capacity regulation, but there is still potential for decline after the short - term rebound, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large [6]. Corn - In the Northeast, the purchase and sale are dull, and the new season corn has not been massively listed, so the price is firm; in North China, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is slightly weak. As corn transitions to the new season, the old - season inventory is tight, and the new - season corn has not been massively listed, which slightly supports the price. However, the concentrated listing of corn in mid - to late September, the expected increase in production, and the decline in planting costs will put pressure on the price. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. In the short term, the corn market has weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it will maintain a weak pattern [8]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio reached a new high, resulting in large supply pressure and the price falling below 16 cents per pound. The overall supply pressure of raw sugar remains large, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern. However, as the sugar price approaches the含税 ethanol price, the future increase in the sugar - alcohol ratio in Brazil is limited. With the new sugar to be listed in less than a month and the pre - sale price lower than the current market price, the sales time for old sugar is limited. The futures price is weak, the market sentiment is bearish, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. Cotton - Some cotton ginning factories have started purchasing this week, but the pricing methods for wadding cotton and spinning cotton are different, and the new - cotton purchase driver is still unclear. In the short term, the price has limited upward and downward space, and the downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the confidence in the traditional peak season is low. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [13]. Eggs - In recent days, the increase in traders' purchases may drive up the egg price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the market will limit the price increase. After the second and third rounds of replenishment in the second half of the week, the demand may weaken, and the risk of price decline increases. Overall, the egg price may rebound in early September, but the increase is limited, and a bearish view is maintained [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: The prices of various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil have changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 1.15%, and the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.59% [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis and spread of different oil varieties have also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market increased by 6.67%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the 2509 contract increased by 9.76% [1]. - Inventory and Import Profit: The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China and the import profit of palm oil are also presented in the report [1]. Meal - Price and Basis: The prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans have changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, and the basis of the M2601 contract increased by 20% [3]. - Import Profit and Spread: The import profit of different origins and the spread between different meal varieties are shown. For example, the import profit of Brazilian soybeans in October decreased by 42.9%, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2601 contract increased by 1.52% [3]. Pork - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of futures contracts such as the main contract, the 2511 contract, and the 2601 contract of pork have changed, and the spot prices in different regions are also provided, along with indicators such as slaughter volume, white - strip price, and breeding profit [6]. Corn - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of corn futures contracts such as the 2511 contract and the spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou) have changed. The report also includes information on import profit, processing enterprise vehicle volume, and inventory [8]. - Corn Starch: The prices of corn starch futures contracts and spot prices in different regions (such as Changchun and Weifang) have changed, along with information on basis, spread, and processing profit [8]. Sugar - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of sugar futures contracts such as the 2601 and 2605 contracts and the spot prices in different regions (such as Kunming and Nanning) have changed. The report also includes information on import sugar prices, basis, and industry indicators such as production, sales, and inventory [12]. Cotton - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of cotton futures contracts such as the 2601 and 2605 contracts and the spot prices in different regions (such as Xinjiang) have changed. The report also includes information on basis, spread, and industry indicators such as inventory, export volume, and processing profit [13]. Eggs - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of egg futures contracts such as the 10 and 11 contracts and the spot prices in different regions have changed. The report also includes information on basis, spread, and industry indicators such as egg - chicken chick price, culled - chicken price, and breeding profit [15][16].
油脂产业期现日报-20250911
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-11 08:33