广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250911

1. Natural Rubber Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core Viewpoint: The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if supply is restricted, rubber prices are expected to remain high [1] - Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On September 10, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai dropped to 15,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. The new basis difference decreased by 34.78%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased slightly by 0.29%, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber raw materials in Hainan increased by 1.49% [1] - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1] - Fundamental Data: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, and India's decreased by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.30. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel and all - steel automobile tires decreased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of dry rubber in Thailand increased, and the production profit margin decreased [1] - Inventory Change: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1] 2. Polysilicon Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core Viewpoint: In September, the supply reduction is not obvious, and the demand for silicon wafers has increased slightly. The supply - demand relationship may show a slight de - stocking pattern. The spot price transmission mechanism is smooth, but the futures market is more influenced by policy expectations. Short - term price fluctuations should be watched out for [2] - Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On September 10, the average price of N - type re - feed decreased by 0.10%, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type materials increased by 30.47%. The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, while the price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects increased by 0.29% [2] - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The main contract price decreased by 1.19%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 104.65%, and the spreads between other contracts changed to varying degrees [2] - Fundamental Data: Weekly, silicon wafer production increased by 3.53%, and polysilicon production decreased by 2.58%. Monthly, polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, imports by 40.30%, exports by 5.96%, and net exports decreased by 14.92%. Silicon wafer production increased by 6.24%, imports decreased by 15.41%, exports increased by 11.37%, and net exports increased by 15.56%. The demand for silicon wafers increased by 0.14% [2] - Inventory Change: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.94%, silicon wafer inventory decreased by 6.65%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 7.28% [2] 3. Industrial Silicon Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core Viewpoint: The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise, and although production has increased, there are signs of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship was in tight balance in August. If some capacities are cleared in the long - term, supply pressure will ease. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3] - Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: On September 10, the prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of each type decreased to varying degrees [3] - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 206.25% [3] - Fundamental Data: Monthly, national industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, with increases in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The national开工 rate increased by 6.20%. The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased by 8.32% [3] - Inventory Change: Xinjiang's inventory increased slightly by 0.25%, while Yunnan's and Sichuan's factory - warehouse inventories decreased. Social inventory decreased by 0.74%, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.18%, and non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.53% [3] 4. Log Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core Viewpoint: The log futures are in a volatile pattern. The spot market is weak, and the import enthusiasm of traders is low. Supply is expected to remain low in September. Inventory is low and has been decreasing. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. The current futures valuation is relatively low, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [4] - Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Price: On September 10, the price of the log 2511 contract increased to 806.5 yuan/cubic meter. The spot prices of different types of radiation pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged. The new round of foreign quotes decreased to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [4] - Spread and Basis: The 9 - 11 spread and 9 - 1 spread, as well as the basis of each contract, changed to varying degrees [4] - Supply: In the previous week, the arrival volume at 12 ports in China reached a new low of about 170,000 cubic meters. This week, 11 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, with a total arrival volume of about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [4] - Inventory: As of September 5, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.94 million cubic meters, showing a continuous decreasing trend [4] - Demand: As of September 5, the average daily log outbound volume was 61,200 cubic meters, showing a slight decline but still remaining above 60,000 cubic meters [4] 5. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core Viewpoint - Soda Ash: The futures market continues to be weak and volatile. The fundamental logic of oversupply persists. Although inventory has not increased significantly this week, it has actually shifted to the middle and lower reaches. Supply has returned to a high level. In the medium - term, demand will remain at a rigid level. The supply is high after the traditional summer maintenance season. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5] - Glass: The news of the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area caused the futures market to rise. However, the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the shutdown time is expected to be limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. The inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is increasing, and the inventory of the middle - stream has not decreased significantly. Deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [5] - Summary by Directory - Glass - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of glass in different regions changed to varying degrees. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased. The 05 basis increased by 7.75% [5] - Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained unchanged. The price of the soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 0.37%, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 0.22%. The 05 basis increased by 8.62% [5] - Supply: The soda ash开工 rate increased by 4.55%, and the weekly production increased to 751,700 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged. The price of 3.2mm coated glass increased by 8.11% [5] - Inventory: Glass inventory increased by 0.77%, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.43%, soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 8.03%, and the number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories decreased by 12.54% [5] - Real - Estate Data: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of decline [5]