瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of lithium carbonate rebounded slightly, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. On the fundamental side, there is still uncertainty in the supply of mining areas, and overseas miners are holding prices and reluctant to sell. The spot price of lithium carbonate has weakened, and the quotation of lithium ore has回调. In terms of supply, the consumption boost in the peak season and the recent decline in lithium prices have led to the destocking of smelters and an increase in production enthusiasm, so the domestic supply is expected to increase. In terms of demand, downstream material factories have stockpiling and purchasing needs before the long - holiday, and the recent decline in lithium prices may strengthen the trading sentiment in the spot market. In terms of inventory, the inventory of upstream smelters continues to decline, while the inventory of downstream increases, and the overall inventory shows a slight decline. In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 46.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0612%. The call open interest in the options market dominates, and the sentiment in the options market is bullish, with a slight decrease in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 71,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 280 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 159,932 lots, a daily increase of 9,072 lots; the open interest of the main contract is 323,456 lots, a daily decrease of 17,358 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 280 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 300 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEX are 38,101 lots, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 600 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 600 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 1,850 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 880 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 895 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 27 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 6,845 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 205 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons; the monthly import volume is 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons; the monthly export volume is 366.35 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, an increase of 4,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 56,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 145,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 128,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 0%, a decrease of 52 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, a decrease of 25,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 1,262,000 vehicles, a decrease of 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) is 44.99%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,286,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, an increase of 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 41.74%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 58.49%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call open interest is 195,352 contracts, an increase of 24,518 contracts; the total put open interest is 90,544 contracts, an increase of 9,551 contracts; the put - call ratio of total open interest is 46.35%, a decrease of 1.0612 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.40%, a decrease of 0.0262 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other six departments jointly deployed a special rectification campaign against network chaos in the automotive industry to improve the disposal efficiency of network chaos involving automotive enterprises, urge enterprises to standardize marketing and publicity behaviors, create a good public opinion environment, and support the high - quality development of the automotive industry. The key problems to be rectified include illegal profit - making, exaggerated and false publicity, and malicious slander and attacks. China has made significant breakthroughs in prospecting for strategic emerging industrial minerals, discovering an "Asian lithium belt" spanning Sichuan, Qinghai, Tibet, and Xinjiang, and finding multiple large and super - large lithium mines on this important rare - metal metallogenic belt. The China Automobile Dealers Association released that the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in August was 1.31, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. The inventory level is below the warning line but higher than the reasonable range. It is expected that the terminal retail sales of passenger cars in September will increase steadily month - on - month, and the market performance will be better than that in August. In the second quarter, benefiting from the growth of pure - electric vehicle sales, the global installation volume of electric vehicle traction inverters reached 7.66 million units, a year - on - year increase of 19%. In terms of power mode, the installation proportion of BEV was 52%, ranking first again after the first quarter of 2024 [2]