瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by cost due to low TC fees for copper mines and firm raw material quotes. Domestic refined copper production may decline due to smelter maintenance and supply shortages of raw materials. In the short term, the strong copper price suppresses downstream purchasing sentiment, but in the long term, demand is expected to increase during the traditional consumption peak season. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position and control the trading rhythm and risk [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 80,130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,006.50 dollars/ton, down 6.50 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 174,453 hands, up 2,541 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 3,305 hands, up 5,005 hands. The LME copper inventory is 155,050 tons, down 225 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,851 tons, up 2,103 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 21,725 tons, down 225 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 20,028 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 80,175 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 80,190 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 61 dollars/ton, down 5.50 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 45 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 56.61 dollars/ton, up 21.41 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC fee for domestic copper smelters is - 40.85 dollars/thousand tons, up 0.63 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 70,480 yuan/metal ton, up 390 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,180 yuan/metal ton, up 390 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is also 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The production of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 425,000 tons, down 55,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,800 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.37%, down 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.40%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 10.32%, up 0.0011%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.35, down 0.0442 [2]. Industry News - In August in the US, PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, turning negative for the first time in four months. The year - on - year increase was 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.3%. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing China's stance on Sino - US relations. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fuan stated that more proactive fiscal policies will be used to support employment and foreign trade. In August in China, CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased 0.4% year - on - year, while core CPI increased 0.9% year - on - year. PPI decreased 2.9% year - on - year with a narrowing decline, and was flat month - on - month. Chinese National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng栅洁 reported on the implementation of the national economic and social development plan, emphasizing the importance of various economic work balances [2].