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钢材产业期现日报-20250911
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-11 08:57

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Steel prices are maintaining a weak trend, with the demand for steel remaining at a low level during the off - season and showing no signs of recovery. Steel inventories are accumulating at a low price level from August to September. There is an expectation that the demand will pick up during the peak season, and the inventory accumulation will slow down. The steel supply - demand situation has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Future steel prices will mainly follow the supply - side expectations of coking coal. For trading, focus on the support levels of 3100 for the January contract of rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) all showed a downward trend, with a decline of 10 yuan/ton for most spot prices and 1 - 14 yuan/ton for futures contract prices [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained stable. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, North China hot - rolled coils increased by 20, and South China hot - rolled coils increased by 10. The profits of rebar in different regions showed different trends, with North China's rebar profit decreasing by 10 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 11.1 to 229.0, a decline of 4.6%. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7, a decline of 2.7%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7, a rise of 2.2%. The rebar inventory increased by 16.6 to 640.0, a rise of 2.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.9 to 374.3, a rise of 2.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decline of 8.3%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8, a decline of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a stable and volatile trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly declined from its annual high, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. It is expected that the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. The sharp decline in shipments is mainly due to the decline in Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, after the major events ended, the pig iron output will significantly increase this week, and the steel mills' restocking demand will increase. It is expected that both supply and demand will pick up this week. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has slightly increased, the cargo clearance volume has decreased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. In the future, due to the relatively high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to the production control situation of steel mills in the fourth quarter. For trading strategies, iron ore is still in a tight - balanced pattern, with a bullish view on the single - side volatility, and the range is between 780 - 830. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract and reduce the long - iron - ore and short - coking - coal arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties (Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, Jinbuba fines) all decreased by 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for different varieties has increased significantly, with an increase of 41.7 - 41.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.6%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.6%, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port (Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, Jinbuba fines) all decreased by 3 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.3 - 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap increased by 1.5 to 106.8, a rise of 1.4%, and the Jinshi 62% Fe increased by 2 to 107.7, a rise of 1.8% [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0, a decline of 3.1%. The global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decline of 22.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decline of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decline of 4.7%. The 45 - port daily average cargo clearance volume decreased by 0.9 to 317.8, a decline of 0.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7, a decline of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decline of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, a rise of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 9007.2, a decline of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1 to 21, a rise of 5.0% [3]. Report on the Coking Coal and Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes were weak. The coke futures showed a volatile rebound trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. After the first - round price cut of coke spot, it remained stable, and the port trade quotes followed the futures. In the future, as the coking profit improves and the production restrictions are lifted, the supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The coking coal price may continue to decline in September. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take profits on short positions for both coking coal and coke, with a neutral view on the volatility. The trading range for coke is 1550 - 1650, and for coking coal is 1070 - 1170. Reduce the long - iron - ore and short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage, and pay attention to the risks of large price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal contracts (01, 05) decreased, with the 01 contract decreasing by 7 yuan/ton and the 05 contract decreasing by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 8 to 424, a decline of 1.9% [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke contracts (01, 05) increased, with the 01 contract increasing by 6 yuan/ton and the 05 contract increasing by 7 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton. The steel - union coking profit decreased by 11 to - 24 [5]. Overseas Coal Prices and Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price increased by 0.1 to 201, a rise of 0.1%. The Jingtang Port Australian prime coking coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 70 to 1560, a decline of 4.5%. The Guangzhou Port Australian steam coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 4.7 to 739, a decline of 0.64% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decline of 0.34%. The raw coal output decreased by 43.1 to 860.5, a decline of 5.0%, and the clean coal output decreased by 25.4 to 444.5, a decline of 5.74% [5]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.2 to 228.8, a decline of 4.74%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decline of 0.34% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 7.8 to 895.3, a rise of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 to 66.5, a rise of 1.8%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 13.6 to 623.7, a rise of 2.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 41.2 to 967.3, a decline of 4.34%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 16.1 to 811.9, a decline of 2.04% [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 4.9 to - 0.8 [5].