合成橡胶产业日报-20250911

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient. Although there are some production device overhauls, the production has recovered and increased. Next week, the reduction in supply will gradually be reflected, and the spot offer may decline after the price cut of butadiene rubber and butadiene, which may drive some downstream stocking. The inventory of producers and traders may slightly decrease. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase as the production scheduling of overhaul enterprises gradually resumes this week, but the increase may be limited due to the production control plan of some enterprises. The short - term forecast range of the br2511 contract is between 11,600 - 12,300 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,655 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the position of the main contract is 22,243 lots, down 1,100 lots; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber is 145 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. Brent crude oil is 67.49 US dollars/barrel, up 1.1 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.67 US dollars/barrel, up 1.04 US dollars. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 603.25 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,095 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 68.45%, up 0.54 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 30,950 tons, up 6,950 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.1%, up 0.53 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 76.16%, up 0.31 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 462 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the social inventory is 3.19 million tons, up 0.02 million tons; the producer inventory is 24,650 tons, down 450 tons; the trader inventory is 7,260 tons, up 640 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.85 days, down 0.29 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 34,500 tons, up 2,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15%. As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. Some enterprises in Dongying have 3 - 4 days of overhaul plans, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. In August 2025, the output of Chinese butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]