Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Supply in Yunnan is increasing, while in Hainan, rainfall has disrupted tapping and slowed the seasonal increase in raw materials. Some factories are competing to buy raw materials, and the purchase price of latex has been raised. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the destocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, the destocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as some enterprises resume production after maintenance, but the increase in production may be limited due to some enterprises' production control plans. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,800 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,550 - 13,200 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,905 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract were 150,967 lots, up 372 lots; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract were 73,296 lots, up 1,326 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 30,105 lots, up 1,015 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 15,223 lots, down 156 lots. - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, down 2,310 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, down 907 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,005 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of the non - standard product of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,253 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 633 yuan/ton, up 136 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.98 Thai baht/kg, down 0.12 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.15 Thai baht. - The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.4 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 14.97%, down 0.24 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 18.46%, up 0.12 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.51%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.51%, up 0.41 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. Some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. 3.7 Suggestion Pay attention to the operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250911
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-11 09:27