瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250911

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol port inventory continued to accumulate significantly this week. With the support of reverse flow, contract shipments, and terminal restocking, the pick - up at the mainstream storage areas along the river was good, but the inventory still increased under the supply replenishment. The import apparent demand is expected to be stable next week, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue the accumulation rhythm, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant led to a decline in the domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate. After the expected restart of Shenhua Xinjiang and the continued shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant next week, the industry operating rate is expected to rise. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2440 in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2387 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest of methanol was 775,400 lots, an increase of 19,434 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol was - 118,150 lots, a decrease of 9,662 lots. The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 14,979, an increase of 460 [3] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2122.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 152.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 112 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 264 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 326 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 295 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 108.95 tons, an increase of 8.72 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 46.08 tons, an increase of 3.54 tons. The methanol import profit was 12.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.07 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 342,600 tons, an increase of 1500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 37.73%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 4.83%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 84.24%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of MTBE was 62.22%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 1022 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 12.63%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.07%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 15.57%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 15.57%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons or 1.31% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 25.07 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons or 3.91% from the previous period. As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.03 tons, an increase of 12.26 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 8.72 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 3.54 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, a decrease of 3.16% from the previous period [3]