瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250911

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ICE canola futures closed higher on September 10 but remained near the bottom of the downtrend since late June. The good weather and high excellent rate in the US soybean - producing areas bring supply - side pressure, but the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price. The market focuses on the USDA report this month, which is expected to lower the US soybean yield per acre. [2] - For rapeseed meal, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals in China reduces supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts its consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also affect the supply and price. [2] - For rapeseed oil, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is still loose, which restricts short - term prices. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also restricts purchases. The market is volatile due to international trade relations, and short - term participation is recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9893 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE canola futures was 628.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.8 Canadian dollars. [2] - Spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 346 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 147 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. [2] - Positions: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil were 286194 lots, up 31047 lots; those of rapeseed meal were 407316 lots, up 20610 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 18355 lots, up 12961 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 5220 lots, up 9 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 6953; that of rapeseed meal was 9.8. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10005 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7810.05 yuan/ton, up 75.88 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio was 3.71, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 47 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 63 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1410 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 720 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 10 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 13.06%, up 1.07 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit was 858 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 53.2 million tons, down 2.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 31.51 million tons, up 0.65 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 4.55 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 21.3 million tons, up 1.3 million tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.03 million tons, up 0.77 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 2.74 million tons, down 0.15 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.18%, down 1.16 percentage points; that of put options was 18.19%, down 1.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 13.01%, down 0.74 percentage points; that of put options was 13.03%, down 0.7 percentage points. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.15%, down 2.13 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 22.1%, up 0.12 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 8.26%, down 3.65 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.01%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - ICE canola futures closed higher on September 10 but remained near the bottom of the downtrend since late June. The 11 - month contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 628.10 Canadian dollars/ton, and the 1 - month contract rose 10.70 Canadian dollars to 640.70 Canadian dollars/ton. [2] - The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and high excellent rate bring supply - side pressure, but the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price. The market focuses on the USDA report this month, which is expected to lower the US soybean yield per acre. [2] - The US senator tried to stop the Trump administration from adjusting the renewable fuel obligation policy, which led to the decline of US soybean oil futures and affected the domestic vegetable oil market sentiment. [2]