Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the key points of next - stage work, promoting capacity governance in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries and promote quality improvement and upgrading. They will make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade and foster new growth drivers. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline but was higher than the same period last year; inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and apparent demand continued to fall. Overall, market sentiment was low, terminal demand was average, the increase in short positions of mainstream holdings was greater, and the futures price center shifted down. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,092.00 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the position volume was 2,000,701 lots, up 133,027 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 266,935 lots, down 65,611 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 251,365 tons, up 8,525 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,240.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,323 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 148.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 170.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 801.00 yuan/wet ton, up 3.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,990.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 4.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 7.58 percentage points; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2895 million tons, down 28,000 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.1193 million tons, down 67,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 46.46%, down 1.48 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.6663 million tons, down 47,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8723 million tons, up 185,700 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, down 1.04 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China was 1.658 million tons, up 140,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 405.36 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar in this period was 2.1193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,500 tons; the mill inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,100 tons; the social inventory was 4.8723 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 185,700 tons; the total inventory was 6.5386 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons; the apparent demand was 1.9807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons. As of September 10, according to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises from January to August 2025 were 868.862 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17%; the sales in August were 106.451 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.2% [2].
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250911
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-11 09:26