中国股票策略 - 反内卷- 为何对股市重要及摩根大通首选标的-China Equity Strategy_ Anti-involution (vol 3)_ why it matters to equities and JPM‘s top picks

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for several key stocks within the "anti-involution" theme, indicating a positive outlook for these investments [10]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" theme is projected as a significant trade over the next 18-24 months, focusing on rationalizing local government-backed investments and enhancing returns on investments (ROIs) in the Chinese equity market [2][5]. - The report identifies three primary ecosystems for investment: "renewables proxies," "property + macro proxies," and "ecommerce proxies," with a strong preference for renewables due to better topline profiles and execution capabilities [2][5]. - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is crucial for the expansion of the Chinese equity market, as it aims to improve ROIs, which are essential for attracting institutional investments [2][5]. Summary by Sections Anti-Involution Theme - The "anti-involution" policy is compared to previous initiatives aimed at controlling capital expansion, with a focus on reducing over-capacity and improving fiscal discipline [2][5]. - The report anticipates a "Decade of Consolidation" in various sectors, driven by increased M&A activity as local corporatism is curtailed [5]. Stock Performance - Price returns from July 1 to September 5, 2025, show that renewable proxies, particularly battery, lithium, and solar shares, have outperformed with returns of 39%, 37%, and 33% respectively [5][35]. - In contrast, sectors like autos and ecommerce have lagged, with returns flat to -4%, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures and uncertainties regarding subsidies [5][35]. Top Picks - The report lists top stock picks to express the "anti-involution" theme, including Baosteel, CATL, Daqo, and PetroChina, among others, indicating a focus on sectors with strong growth potential [10][5]. - Updated stock screens categorize stocks into renewable proxies, property + macro proxies, and consumption proxies, providing a structured approach to investment selection [5][10]. Market Context - The report notes that households in China held approximately US$24 trillion in cash and deposits as of June 2025, raising questions about the ability of equities to generate sufficient earnings and dividends to absorb this liquidity [18]. - The report emphasizes that the current market environment, characterized by declining fixed income returns and rising volatility, is pushing investors towards equities as a more attractive investment avenue [12][18].