Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils & fats, meals, hogs, corn, cotton, eggs, and sugar, with data as of September 12, 2025 [1][3][6][8][11][13][17] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Ratings - There is no information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports Group 3: Core Views Oils & Fats - For palm oil, closely monitor if the futures price can stabilize above 4,400 ringgit. A break below may open new downside. Domestically, short - term support is at 9,000 yuan. For soybean oil, the CBOT December contract may briefly fall below 50 cents if CBOT soybeans decline further. On the domestic front, downstream demand is increasing, but supply is still ample, and the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may trade in a narrow range before the USDA report [1] Meals - The downside for meal prices is limited. In the fourth quarter, domestic soybean supply is not abundant, and cost support for meals remains strong. The market awaits the USDA September supply - demand report, with expectations of a lower yield but high production [3] Hogs - Spot prices have limited downside as they are at a low level. Demand is slowly rising, but it's uncertain if it can absorb the supply. The market may see a short - term rebound but has potential for further decline due to large supply pressure [6] Corn - The market is divided regionally. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to remain weak [8] Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may trade in a range. In the long term, they may face pressure when new cotton hits the market [11] Eggs - Egg prices may rebound in early September but with limited upside. A decline risk increases after the second and third rounds of restocking end [14] Sugar - Raw sugar supply pressure is high, and it is expected to remain weak. However, the upside for the sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is limited. The sugar market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate [17] Group 4: Industry - Specific Data Summaries Oils & Fats - Soybean Oil: Spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35% to 8,540 yuan; futures price (Y2601) increased by 0.07% to 8,568 yuan; basis (Y2601) decreased by 11.69% to 272 yuan [1] - Palm Oil: Spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.54% to 9,220 yuan; futures price (P2601) remained unchanged at 9,446 yuan; basis (P2601) decreased by 28.41% to - 226 yuan; import profit increased by 18.57% to - 195 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 5.72% to 1,570 [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.30% to 9,940 yuan; futures price (OI601) increased by 0.87% to 10,023 yuan; basis (OI601) decreased by 207.41% to - 83 yuan [1] Meals - Soybean Meal: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan; futures price (M2601) increased by 0.72% to 3,088 yuan; basis (M2601) decreased by 61.11% to - 58 yuan; Brazilian October shipment crush margin increased by 47.2% to 53 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 6.4% to 27,565 [3] - Rapeseed Meal: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,630 yuan; futures price (RM2601) increased by 1.34% to 2,567 yuan; basis (RM2601) decreased by 35.05% to 63 yuan; Canadian November shipment crush margin increased by 2.68% to 881 yuan; warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,383 [3] Hogs - Futures: The price of Live Hog 2511 increased by 0.04% to 13,320 yuan; Live Hog 2601 decreased by 0.07% to 13,730 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread increased by 3.53% to - 410 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.31% to 75,953; warehouse receipts remained at 428 [6] - Spot: Prices in Henan decreased by 0.37% to 13,500 yuan; in Shandong remained at 13,500 yuan; in Sichuan remained at 13,350 yuan; in Liaoning remained at 13,100 yuan; in Guangdong remained at 14,290 yuan; in Hunan increased by 0.76% to 13,210 yuan; in Hebei decreased by 0.74% to 13,400 yuan [6] Corn - Corn: The price of Corn 2511 increased by 0.23% to 2,202 yuan; the basis decreased by 4.42% to 108 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread increased by 45.45% to 16 yuan; the south - north trade profit increased by 11.36% to 49 yuan; import profit increased by 0.20% to 504 yuan; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 76.37% to 806; open interest increased by 0.84% to 1,581,422; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.16% to 51,874 [8] - Corn Starch: The price of Corn Starch 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 2,477 yuan; the basis increased by 15.28% to 83 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 42.11% to - 27 yuan; the starch - corn spread decreased by 5.50% to 275 yuan; Shandong's processing profit increased by 48.78% to - 42 yuan; open interest increased by 4.83% to 295,207; warehouse receipts increased by 5.78% to 9,500 [8] Cotton - Futures: The price of Cotton 2605 decreased by 0.18% to 13,795 yuan; Cotton 2601 decreased by 0.14% to 13,835 yuan; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29% to - 40 yuan; the main contract's open interest decreased by 0.47% to 502,476; warehouse receipts decreased by 3.06% to 5,159 [11] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 12,186 yuan; the CC Index 3128B decreased by 0.24% to 15,249 yuan; the FC Index M 1% increased by 0.26% to 13,353 yuan [11] Eggs - The price of the Egg 11 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,044 yuan; the Egg 10 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,043 yuan; the spot price in the production area increased by 0.94% to 3.47 yuan per catty; the basis increased by 1.78% to 426 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread remained unchanged at 1 [13] Sugar - Futures: The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.38%; Sugar 2605 increased by 0.31% to 5,524 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.57% to 15.80 cents per pound; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.62% to 391,605; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 11,739 [17] - Spot: The price in Nanning increased by 0.17% to 5,890 yuan; in Kunming increased by 0.26% to 5,850 yuan; the Nanning basis decreased by 1.88% to 366 yuan; the Kunming basis decreased by 0.61% to 326 yuan [17]
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250912
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-12 01:15