农产品早报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be listed, causing a wait - and - see attitude in the market. Spot prices at ports are weakening, pulling down the futures prices. However, due to limited supply increase, there is no expectation of a sharp decline. In the long - term, prices are expected to decline under the background of increased production and lower costs, and may turn around when domestic consumption improves or farmers are reluctant to sell [2]. - Starch: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices. High inventory and low downstream demand pressure prices. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [2]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring international sugar prices. Uncertainty in Brazil's sugar production remains. Domestically, following the international trend, with imported sugar arriving and lower processing sugar prices, there is pressure on the futures [2]. - Cotton: The market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom, and the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. - Eggs: Reduced mid - autumn festival stocking demand, high supply, and high cold - storage egg inventory suppress egg prices. Although there is a recent spot price rebound, it is still restricted, and the progress of culling laying hens is slowed [6]. - Apples: New - season apple production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and seasonal fruits are squeezing the market share of apples. Attention should be paid to the final production after the bag - removing season [9]. - Pigs: The market is in a range - bound oscillation. There are policy expectations for a production capacity inflection point next year and seasonal support this year, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient production capacity reduction. Near - term contracts are adjusting for premium, and far - term contracts still have a slight premium expectation, waiting for spot price verification [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From September 5 - 11, corn prices in some regions were stable or slightly decreased, and starch prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, trade profit, and import profit of corn changed, and the processing profit of starch was negative [2]. - Market Analysis: Reserve corn auctions had a slight improvement in trading volume. New - season corn listing and market sentiment affected prices. Starch producers may sell at lower prices to clear inventory [2]. Sugar - Price Data: From September 5 - 11, spot prices in some regions were relatively stable, and the basis and import profit changed. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [2][13]. - Market Analysis: International supply pressure from Brazil and domestic imported sugar arrivals affected the market [2]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From September 5 - 11, the price of 3128 cotton decreased. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn and the 32S spinning profit changed [3]. - Market Analysis: The market is waiting for demand to pick up [3]. Eggs - Price Data: From September 5 - 11, egg prices in some production areas were stable or increased slightly, and the basis increased. The prices of substitute products changed slightly [5]. - Market Analysis: Reduced stocking demand and high inventory affected prices, and the recent spot price rebound was restricted [6]. Apples - Price Data: From September 5 - 11, the spot prices of Shandong apples were stable, and the national inventory decreased. The basis of different contracts changed [8][9]. - Market Analysis: Production in different regions has different situations, and consumption is in the off - season [9]. Pigs - Price Data: From September 5 - 11, pig prices in some production areas decreased, and the basis decreased [9]. - Market Analysis: Policy expectations and seasonal factors co - exist with mid - term supply pressure [9].