建信期货多晶硅日报-20250912

Group 1: Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The closing price of PS2511 was 53,710 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.94%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, and the open interest was 136,326 lots, a net decrease of 746 lots [4]. - In September, with production cuts and sales control, the monthly output is expected to be the same as that in August, ranging from 125,000 to 130,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 55 - 60GW. The weekly output of silicon wafers and solar cells remained flat. The downstream has a trend of active replenishment due to price - increase expectations, and the monthly supply - demand is basically balanced [4]. - Terminal demand is weak. After the "rush to install" in the first half of the year overdrafted the total demand, the monthly installed capacity has not recovered. Policy has a pulsed impact, and after September 4th, it entered a policy vacuum period again. The stable spot price provides rigid support for the lower limit of the futures price (the average spot price of re - feed material is 49,000 yuan/ton), and the selling pressure at high levels is obvious. The follow - up policy support needs to be observed [4]. Group 2: Market News - On September 11th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,690 lots, an increase of 320 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6GW, and the newly - added installed capacity was 223.25GW. The newly - added installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].