建信期货生猪日报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation of live pigs is loose, and the price remains weak. On the spot side, although terminal demand has increased with the start of schools and cooler weather, the supply pressure from hog sales is still relatively large. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak - demand season, and the supply - demand margin may improve, but they are mainly oscillating weakly due to the current large spot supply pressure [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Market Conditions: On the 11th, the main 2511 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher and then oscillated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 13,370 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,574 lots to 197,717 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs on the spot market was 13.33 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - Analysis: On the supply side, in September, the planned sales of sample breeding enterprises were 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly declined, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The terminal consumption of residents may increase, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the slaughter rate and volume have slightly increased. On September 11th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 148,000 heads, an increase of 400 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 heads [9]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - As of September 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 98.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per live pig purchased as a piglet was - 112.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [10][12]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of September 4th was 425 yuan/head, a decrease of 19 yuan/head from the previous week [15]. - The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of September 4th was 0.19 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/jin. The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 13.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 13.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]. - The slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate in the week of September 5th was 31.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.54 percentage points, with the weekly rate fluctuating between 30.18% and 31.75% [15]. - As of the week of September 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.23 kg, an increase of 0.4 kg or 0.31% from the previous week [15].