纯碱、玻璃日报-20250912

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On September 11, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 fluctuated strongly, closing at 1,287 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 1.25%, with a daily reduction of 9,350 lots [7] - Fundamentally, the weekly production growth rate slowed down, and the inventory reduction amplitude decreased. The weak fundamental pattern remained unchanged. The weekly production of soda ash rose to 761,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.24%. However, the domestic soda ash industry still faced the situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the factory inventory continued to decline to 1.7975 million tons, 24,600 tons less than last Thursday, it was still at a high level. On the demand side, the shipment performance of Chinese soda ash enterprises declined slightly this week, with a total shipment volume of 785,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.44%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 103.23%, also showing a downward trend, a month-on-month decrease of 2.81 percentage points. Macroscopically, there was no new policy information to alleviate the involution in the soda ash industry, and the possibility of relevant policies being implemented in the short term was relatively low [8] - In summary, the oversupply and inventory accumulation of soda ash could not be alleviated in the short term, and it was difficult to make a breakthrough. At the same time, the overall industry capacity was further increasing, and the pattern of oversupply in the market was difficult to improve effectively. Downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass was relatively stable; the production and sales of photovoltaic glass were good recently. On the one hand, the fourth quarter was the traditional peak season for photovoltaic installation, and on the other hand, the expected increase in natural gas prices in winter would push up the production cost of photovoltaic glass. Therefore, downstream products might form a slight support for the soda ash price. It was expected that the futures price would fluctuate. In the absence of substantial positive factors, subsequent attention should be paid to macro changes [8] Glass - Fundamentally, in early September 2025, the domestic photovoltaic glass market saw a significant price increase, driven by strong demand. On the one hand, market expectations were released in advance, laying the foundation for demand release in September. On the other hand, with the approaching holiday, component enterprises generally planned to stock up in late September to ensure production continuity after the holiday, amplifying the market demand for photovoltaic glass in September [9] - For float glass, the supply-side pressure was marginally relieved compared with last year, and the cost side had certain support, but the demand side was weak, and it was difficult to make a significant breakthrough in the short term. The demand for new house glass continued to decline, but the production of automobiles and home appliances increased, supporting the glass demand. In the future, the main glass futures contract would show a short-term fluctuating and strengthening trend [10] Group 3: Data Overview - The report provides data on the trading of soda ash and glass futures on September 11, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change, change rate, open interest, and open interest change [7] - It also presents charts on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [12][17][19]