建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost - end demand expectation is poor, the medium - and long - term operating center is declining, the cost support is loosening, and the demand at the initial stage of recovery is insufficient to support raw materials, so the market is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement of consumption in September [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Plastic Futures: The opening prices of plastic 2601, 2605, and 2509 were 7222, 7235, and 7142 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 7209, 7220, and 7145 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.33%, - 0.32%, and - 0.28% respectively. The trading volume of plastic 2601 was 218,000 lots, and the positions increased by 16,282 lots to 533,469 lots [5][6]. - PP Futures: The opening prices of PP2601, 2605, and 2509 were 6952, 6977, and 6773 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 6939, 6961, and 6805 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.17%, - 0.17%, and - 0.40% respectively. The positions of PP2601 increased by 9293 lots to 624,200 lots [5][6]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: For PP, the impact of maintenance is weakening, new production capacity is continuously released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream is in the transition stage between peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall recovery trend is not good. For PE, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the short - term maintenance loss is increasing, the new supply is slow, and the downstream agricultural film is expected to drive social inventory reduction [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On September 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 655,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.96%. The inventory in the same period last year was 790,000 tons [7]. - PE Market: The PE market prices were partially weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7120 - 7450, 7200 - 7650, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6680 - 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream product cost pressure increased, the market trading atmosphere was average [7]. - PP Market: The PP market continued to be weakly adjusted. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6700 - 6870, 6720 - 6940, and 6700 - 6930 yuan/ton respectively [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][16]