Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have not changed significantly. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main production areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling at high levels; if the supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On September 11, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton or 1.00% from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of Panjingxing, which decreased by 8.06% [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 22.22% [1]. - Fundamentals: In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends, with Thailand's production increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, and India's decreasing by 2.17%. China's production decreased by 1.30%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库率 of warehouses increased due to downstream holiday stocking, and there is still an expectation of further inventory reduction [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and the enthusiasm of traders for imports has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be at a low level. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several consecutive weeks. The demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not shown an obvious improvement trend. After entering the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of volatile bottom - seeking. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 11, the 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. - Supply: Last week, the total arrival volume at 12 ports was about 170,000 cubic meters, a record low for the year. This week, 11 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, an increase of 6 ships from last week, and the total arrival volume is about 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 136% [3]. - Demand: The shipment volume last week decreased slightly but remained above 60,000 cubic meters. As of September 5, the average daily shipment volume of logs was 61,200 cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, which will lift the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. From the supply - demand side, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to go long at low levels, but also pay attention to the inventory and warehouse receipts while production increases. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On September 11, the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.06% from the previous day. The basis of some varieties showed significant changes, such as the basis of SI4210, which increased by 38.46% [4]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5032.35% [4]. - Fundamentals: The national industrial silicon production in the current period was 385,700 tons, an increase of 14.01% from the previous period. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 8.32% [4]. - Inventory Changes: The social inventory increased by 0.37%, and the order - form inventory increased by 0.10% [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint In September, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall supply reduction is not obvious. The silicon wafer production plan has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand situation in September may show a slight inventory accumulation pattern. Since late August, downstream players have carried out obvious inventory replenishment, and the price increase of polysilicon has been gradually accepted by the downstream, with a smooth spot price transmission mechanism. In the follow - up, the futures market pays less attention to the fundamentals and more to policy expectations. Short - term price fluctuations may be significant, so caution is required [5]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On September 11, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged at 51,550 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type granular silicon also remained unchanged at 48,500 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type materials decreased by 61.80% [5]. - Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads: The main contract price was 53,710 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from the previous day. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [5]. - Fundamentals (Weekly): The silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, an increase of 0.73% from the previous week; the polysilicon production was 31,200 tons, an increase of 3.31% [5]. - Fundamentals (Monthly): The polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, an increase of 23.31% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume increased by 40.30%, and the export volume increased by 5.96% [5]. - Inventory Changes: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78% [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - Soda Ash: The futures market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production capacity has resumed, and the weekly production has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or production reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. Follow the implementation of policies and the production adjustment of soda ash plants. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels when the price rebounds [6]. - Glass: The spot market had good trading this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, the news of the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time is to be determined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some plans for production resumption and ignition in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, while the inventory in the middle reaches has not significantly decreased. In terms of industry supply - demand, the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity glass has remained low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Follow the implementation of policies in different regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches approaching the peak season. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: On September 12, the price of glass 2505 was 1282 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day; the price of glass 2509 was 686 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [6]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The price of soda ash 2505 was 1359 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from the previous day; the price of soda ash 2509 was 1168 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [6]. - Supply: The soda ash operating rate was 86.22%, down 1.24% from the previous day. The weekly soda ash production was 761,100 tons, up 1.25%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, up 0.38% [6]. - Inventory: The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. - Real - estate Data: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, up 0.09% from the previous period; the growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43% [6].
《特殊商品》日报-20250912
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-12 01:35