建信期货集运指数日报-20250912

Report Information - Report Title: “集运指数日报” [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core View - The SCFIS has fallen below 1600 points for eight consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in the second half of September have been further reduced. The prices show a smooth downward trend in the off - season, with a larger - than - expected decline. The main 10 - contract is still at a certain discount, and the previous rebound may be due to the expectation of increased National Day blank sailings. However, the blank sailing scale this year is not significantly larger than last year, and the overall shipping capacity has increased, so the boosting effect may be limited. There may be low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The SCFIS has dropped below 1600 points for eight consecutive weeks. Shipping prices on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route of major shipping companies have decreased significantly. The main 10 - contract is at a discount, and the previous rebound was due to the expectation of increased National Day blank sailings, but the boosting effect may be weak [8]. - Operation Suggestions: There may be low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract in December, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - China's Export Container Transport Market: From September 1 to 5, the market remained stable, with different routes showing different price trends. The comprehensive index was stable. China's economic sentiment continued to expand in August, with the manufacturing sector slightly improving and the non - manufacturing sector accelerating expansion [9]. - European Routes: Eurozone's July retail sales decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, lower than expected. The transportation demand was weak, and the spot market booking prices continued to decline. On September 5, the Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate was $1315/TEU, down 11.2% from the previous period [9][10]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with freight rates continuing to fall. On September 5, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port freight rate was $1971/TEU, down 8.1% from the previous period [10]. - North American Routes: The US manufacturing index in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. The transportation demand was stable, and the spot market booking prices continued to rise. On September 5, the Shanghai - US West and US East basic port freight rates were $2189/FEU and $3073/FEU respectively, up 13.8% and 7.2% from the previous period [10]. - International Situation: The situation in the Middle East has become tense again. There are issues related to the cease - fire in Gaza, and some Western countries' plans to recognize Palestine may have an impact on Israel. Also, multiple international submarine cables in the Red Sea have been cut [10]. 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: From September 1 to 8, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 1773.6 to 1566.46, a decrease of 11.7%; the SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1013.9 to 980.48, a decrease of 3.3% [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - Shipping - Related Data Charts: The report includes charts of container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][18]