建信期货国债日报-20250912

Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bond [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but there are still limited incremental positives. The bond market has become less sensitive to the stock market since late August, and as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the stock market's suppression of the bond market may further ease. From a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019 due to government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, supply - side disturbances are weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies are unlikely to be implemented. Overall, the suppression of the bond market may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough. In the short term, this week is a period of intensive economic data release, and economic data is expected to show moderate recovery, with the main focus on the stock - bond seesaw and the expectation of central bank bond - buying [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The strength of the A - share market suppressed long - term bonds, while loose funds supported short - term bonds. Most yields of major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.8010%, down 1.4bp [8][9]. - Funding Market: The central bank increased its open - market operations, resulting in a stable and then looser funding situation. There were 2126 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 2920 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 794 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable and then loosened. Short - term funding rates mostly declined slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 5.69bp to 1.3706%, the 7 - day rate rising 0.5bp to 1.4813%, and medium - and long - term funds remaining stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.6% [10]. 2. Industry News - Economic Data: In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year due to a higher base and weak food prices. Core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month. PPI was down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and flat month - on - month, ending eight consecutive months of decline [13]. - Policy Statements: The National Development and Reform Commission aims to better coordinate domestic economic work and international trade struggles, maintain policy continuity and stability, and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. The Ministry of Finance plans to make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade, foster new growth drivers, improve people's livelihoods, and prevent and resolve risks [13][14]. 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: The report provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 8, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interest, and position changes [6]. - Monetary Market: Data on the SHIBOR term structure, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted rates are presented [28][30].