贵金属日评-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts support the price of gold, but the slight rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward momentum of gold and silver. The current round of gold price increase may last until the spring - summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metal trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may outperform gold in terms of increase due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Quotes and Outlook - Intraday Market: The incident of a Russian drone being shot down by NATO in Poland raises geopolitical risks, and the 0.1% month - on - month decline in the US August PPI strengthens the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The London gold price slightly回调 to around $3630 per ounce, waiting for the US August CPI data. The market generally expects the US August overall CPI and core CPI to increase by 2.9% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively. Gold prices fluctuated sideways from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure, and started a new round of upward trend in early September [4]. - Medium - term Market: From late April to early August, the London gold price fluctuated widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, multiple factors drove the gold price to break through the $3500 mark, starting a new upward trend [5]. - Domestic Precious Metal Market: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 833.34, down 0.36%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9829, up 0.04%; the Gold T + D closed at 826.50, down 0.39%; the Silver T + D closed at 9774, down 0.10% [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Geopolitical Event: Poland shot down a suspected Russian drone in its airspace with the support of NATO, which is the first time a Western military alliance member has opened fire during the Russia - Ukraine war. Russia's Ministry of Defense stated that it had no intention of hitting any targets in Poland [17]. - Trade Policy: Mexico will raise tariffs on cars from China and other Asian countries to 50% to protect domestic employment. The EU is unlikely to impose high tariffs on India or China at Trump's request, but plans to include banks in two Central Asian countries and Chinese refineries in the 19th round of sanctions [17][18]. - Economic Data: The US August PPI unexpectedly dropped 0.1% month - on - month. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again based on the weak producer inflation data [17].