沪锌期货早报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is a sideways consolidation. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc rebound in a volatile manner, with increased trading volume. On the position side, long positions slightly increased while short positions decreased, indicating a slow entry of bulls and the exit of bears. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support, the short - term KDJ indicator is rising, and the trend indicator shows that bullish power is rising while bearish power is falling, leading to a stalemate between the two forces [2][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is - 30 with a spot price of 22,220, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On September 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,625 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 596 tons to 44,925 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound but closed below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market - On September 11, the trading volume of zinc futures reached 143,973 lots, with a trading value of 16.0042543 billion yuan, and the open interest was 222,719 lots, an increase of 970 lots [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - On September 11, the price of zinc concentrate in Baizhou was 16,820 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of zinc ingot in Aoshi was 22,220 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,730 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,400 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From September 1 to September 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 133,300 tons to 144,000 tons [5]. 3.5 Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipts - On September 11, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 44,925 tons, an increase of 596 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 595 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 1 ton [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On September 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 200 tons to 50,625 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 30.02% [7]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 11, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities increased by 70 yuan/ton [8]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 11, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 90 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production exceeded the plan by 2.63%, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 11, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,400 to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 85 - 105 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2510, the total trading volume of members was 147,015 lots, an increase of 16,212 lots. The total long position was 68,698 lots, an increase of 138 lots, and the total short position was 65,783 lots, a decrease of 2,571 lots [18].