PTA、MEG早报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: On September 11, the PTA futures oscillated and consolidated, with a weak spot market negotiation atmosphere and a weakened spot basis. The recent PTA maintenance and restart are concurrent, the spot market liquidity is fair, but the spot basis has weakened and the regional basis has shown differentiation. The PTA processing margin has been compressed below 200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices [5]. - MEG: On September 11, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) was weakly consolidated, and the basis weakened and then stabilized. The domestic supply recovery of MEG is still delayed. There are still maintenance expectations for some devices in October. The supply - demand structure of MEG from September to October has improved compared with expectations. The transferable spot of MEG will continue to be tight, and the spot basis will maintain a strong pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to polyester sales and device changes [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content is provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA - Fundamentals: Futures oscillated, spot negotiation was weak, and the basis weakened. September goods were traded at a discount of 65 - 75 to the 01 contract, at a price range of 4600 - 4635. The mainstream spot basis on September 11 was 01 - 70 [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4620, 01 contract basis was - 68, and the futures was at a premium [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: Net short position, and short positions increased [5]. - Expectation: Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and polyester device changes [5]. - MEG - Fundamentals: The price center was weakly consolidated, and the basis weakened and then stabilized. The spot basis was at a premium of 115 - 118 to the 01 contract at night, and weakened to a premium of 95 - 98 during the day. The polyester factories actively replenished at low prices. The outer - market price center was also weakly consolidated, with recent shipments traded at 517 - 521 US dollars/ton [6]. - Basis: Spot price was 4422, 01 contract basis was 120, and the futures was at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: Net short position, and short positions decreased [6]. - Expectation: The domestic supply recovery is delayed, and there are maintenance expectations in October. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the spot basis will remain strong. Pay attention to polyester sales and device changes [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - PTA: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity gradually increased, and the supply - demand relationship showed certain fluctuations. For example, in September 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the output was 626, the total demand was 624, and the ending inventory was 337 [11]. - MEG: From 2024 to 2025, the EG production capacity and supply and demand also changed. In September 2025, the total supply was 234, the total demand was 233, and the supply - demand difference was 2 [12]. - Price Data - Spot Price: On September 11, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was 584.5 US dollars/ton, the spot price of PX CFR Taiwan, China was 824 US dollars/ton, the domestic PTA price index was 4620 yuan/ton, and the domestic MEG price index was 4402 yuan/ton [13]. - Futures Price: On September 11, the TA01 futures price was 4688 yuan/ton, and the EG01 futures price was 4302 yuan/ton [13]. - Basis and Spread: The TA01 basis was - 68 yuan/ton, and the EG01 basis was 120 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory Data - PTA: The PTA factory inventory was 3.84 days [5]. - MEG: The total inventory in East China was 37.24 tons [7]. - Operating Rate Data - Polyester Upstream: The average operating load of polyester devices increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The restart of Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is expected in November [10]. - MEG: The MEG load dropped below 74% [6].