大越期货尿素早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China, with the daily production and operating rate remaining at a relatively high level and the inventory at a high position. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The market is expected to be volatile today, influenced by factors such as the international price and domestic demand changes [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has seen a volatile decline recently. The previous price increase was due to rumors of export liberalization, but market sentiment has since cooled. The daily production and operating rate are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine has slightly rebounded, while agricultural demand has reached a short - term peak. The overall supply exceeds demand in the domestic market, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 89, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (+0.8), which is a bearish factor [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is a bullish sign [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate. With the international urea price being strong and the export policy not being more liberal than expected, the domestic over - supply situation remains obvious [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Price - Bullish Factors: The international urea price is strong [5]. - Bearish Factors: The operating rate and daily production are at a high level, and domestic demand is weak [5]. - Main Logic: The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Market Data - Spot Market: The price of the spot delivery product is 1760, unchanged; the FOB price in China is 2919 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the 01 contract is 1671 (+2), the basis is 89 (-2); the price of the UR05 contract is 1719 (unchanged), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1595 (-18) [6]. - Inventory Data: The warehouse receipt is 8897 (unchanged), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.41 million tons (unchanged), the UR manufacturer's inventory is 917,000 tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 493,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].