大越期货沥青期货早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [7]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, while the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The basis shows that on September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory and factory inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - Overall, it is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and refinery device maintenance volume changed, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt开工 rate at 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工 rate at 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工 rate at 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工 rate at 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; and the waterproofing membrane开工 rate at 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - Basis: On September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 0.642 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; and port diluted asphalt inventory was 0.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [9]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - Main Positions: The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - Expectation: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, price changes, and basis changes of different contracts, as well as data on downstream demand开工 rates, asphalt coking profit spreads, weekly shipments, weekly production, weekly开工 rates, and weekly inventory [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Analysis - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [27]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Ratio Trend: It presents the historical ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, which can be used for relative value analysis [31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, which helps to understand the price changes in the spot market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It presents the historical profit trends of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, which is useful for understanding the profit differences between different production processes [39]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical shipment volume trends of small - sample asphalt enterprises, which helps to understand the sales situation of asphalt [42]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, which is important for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [44]. - Production Volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes, which helps to understand the overall supply situation of asphalt [47]. - Merey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: It presents the historical trends of Merey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt, which helps to understand the production capacity of local refineries [54]. - 开工Rate: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工rates, which helps to understand the production activity of asphalt [57]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It presents the historical trends of estimated maintenance losses, which is important for analyzing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59]. 3.8 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [62]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the overall inventory situation [66]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [69]. 3.9 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volumes, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt, which is important for analyzing the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72]. 3.10 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industrial applications [78]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [81]. - Downstream Demand: It includes the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), and various types of asphalt开工rates (heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), which helps to comprehensively analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84]. 3.11 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which is important for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship of asphalt [104].