大越期货纯碱早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Recently, there have been few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,287 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 87 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][37]. - Market trend: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The peak maintenance period of the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start - up plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,281 yuan/ton | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 91 yuan | | Current value | 1,287 yuan/ton | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan | | Change rate | 0.47% | 0.84% | - 4.40% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the co - production process in East China is - 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - Operating rate and production capacity output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 75.92%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 751,700 tons, including 411,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - Changes in production capacity: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start - up of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Demand - Production - sales ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 75.92% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [28][34]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [37]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].