贵金属早报-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For gold, the US CPI was in line with expectations, leading to a sideways movement in gold prices. Although the expectation of a Fed rate - cut has increased as the September Fed meeting approaches, the upward momentum of gold prices is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has significantly converged to -4.5 yuan/gram. Gold prices remain strong but there is a risk of an early decline if the rate - cut is implemented next week [4]. - For silver, with the US CPI in line with expectations, risk appetite has increased, causing silver prices to rebound. As the September Fed meeting nears and the rate - cut expectation rises, risk appetite remains strong, providing support for silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver is maintained at around 366 yuan/kg [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - Gold: The US CPI was in line with expectations, the three major US stock indexes reached new all - time highs, European stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields were mixed (10 - year Treasury yield down 2.29 basis points to 4.024%), the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 97.53, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1129, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The US CPI was in line with expectations, risk appetite increased, the three major US stock indexes reached new all - time highs, European stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields were mixed (10 - year Treasury yield down 2.29 basis points to 4.024%), the US dollar index fell 0.32% to 97.53, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1129, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is -3.28 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 4200 kg to 50151 kg, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. - Silver: The basis is -28 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 11983 kg to 1240187 kg, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the K - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services will be held at Shougang Park, and BYD Yangwang U8L Ding Shi Edition will be launched. - 11:40: Speech by Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Jones. - 14:00: UK GDP for July and final German CPI for August. - 15:00: Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member, Escrivá. - 16:00: Speeches on monetary policy by European Central Bank Governing Council members, Rehn and Kohler. - 16:15: Speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and President of the German Bundesbank, Nagel. - 18:30: Announcement of the interest rate decision by the Central Bank of Russia, followed by a press conference on monetary policy by Governor Nabiullina. - 22:00: Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September. - Saturday: Circuit breaker test in the US New York Stock Exchange [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, making them still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 3903 to 247,884, the short position increased by 1746 to 84,143, and the net position decreased by 5649 to 163,741. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings have started to decrease [31][34]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 4432 to 361,896, the short position decreased by 5047 to 242,218, and the net position increased by 615 to 119,678. The silver ETF holdings continue to decrease but are higher than the same period in the past two years [32][37].