焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-12）-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of coking coal and coke. For coking coal, it is expected to run weakly and stably in the short - term. For coke, the market is turning to a loose pattern and is also expected to run weakly and stably in the short - term [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Domestic coking coal mines in major producing areas have resumed production steadily, with stable supply. Due to the decline in steel prices and increased expectations of coke price cuts, downstream demand is weak, and the market trading atmosphere has deteriorated. Some coal inventories in mines have accumulated, and coal prices are running weakly and stably [2] - Basis: The spot market price is 1130, with a basis of - 11.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [2] - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week [2] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [2] - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2] - Expectation: Some coking and steel enterprises are resuming production, increasing short - term raw material consumption. However, due to the first round of coke price cuts and the expectation of further price cuts, enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the short - term price is expected to run weakly and stably [2] - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [4] - Negative Factors: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4] Coke - Fundamentals: The decline in raw coal prices has stimulated the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises, and the production has increased. However, downstream steel mills have improved their arrival situation and controlled procurement, affecting the shipment of coking enterprises [6] - Basis: The spot market price is 1570, with a basis of - 60, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [6] - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week [6] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [7] - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is decreasing [7] - Expectation: Coking enterprises are profitable and have high production enthusiasm, but terminal demand is weak, and steel mills are cautious in procurement. The market is turning to a loose pattern, and the short - term price is expected to run weakly and stably [6] - Positive Factors: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [9] - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn replenishment demand [9] Other Data - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21] - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26] - Steel Mill Inventory: Coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31] - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [44] - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [48]