沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - 沪镍: The outer market continues to rebound, with prices standing above the 20 - day moving average. The cost line is firm, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of anti - involution, and the long - term pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 will oscillate, with support from the cost line below [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The cost line is firm, and the inventory continues to decline. Expect consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short - term, anti - involution may affect the black - metal sector again. The contract 不锈钢2511 will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Overview - 镍: The price of 沪镍主力 decreased by 230 to 120620 on September 11 compared to the previous day; the price of 伦镍电 increased by 50 to 15220. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 100 to 121450 [12]. - 不锈钢: The price of 不锈钢主力 decreased by 45 to 12870 on September 11 compared to the previous day. The prices of cold - rolled coils in major regions remained unchanged [12]. 2. Inventory - 镍: As of September 11, the LME nickel inventory was 223152, an increase of 2058; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22111, a decrease of 193. The total inventory increased by 1865 to 245263 [15]. - 不锈钢: As of September 5, the national stainless - steel inventory was 105.36 million tons, a decrease of 2.94 million tons from the previous period. On September 11, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 97554, a decrease of 734 [20][21]. 3. Price of Raw Materials - 镍矿 and nickel - iron: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on September 11 compared to the previous day. The price of high - nickel wet - ton increased by 1 to 953.5 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet - ton remained unchanged at 3470 yuan per ton [24]. 4. Production Cost - 不锈钢: The traditional production cost was 13142, the scrap - steel production cost was 13555, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16760 [26]. 5. Import Cost - 镍: The imported price was converted to 122520 yuan per ton [29]. 6. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Expectation of demand boost during "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policy, and cost - line support at 120,000 [6]. - Negative factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [6].