Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. The trading ranges for different oils are as follows: soybean oil Y2601 between 8100 - 8500, palm oil P2601 between 9100 - 9500, and rapeseed oil OI2601 between 9700 - 10100 [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Entering the production season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8408, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [2]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is a bearish signal [2]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is a bullish signal [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8500 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply is expected to increase. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9354, with a basis of 24, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is a bullish signal [3]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [3]. - Main Position: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short, which is a bearish signal [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9100 - 9500 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the supply is expected to increase. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10020, with a basis of 127, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is a bearish signal [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate between 9700 - 10100 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多 Factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also a "palm oil tremor season" (the specific meaning is not clear from the text) [5]. - 利空 Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]. Supply - Imported Soybean Inventory: No specific data or analysis provided, only the topic is mentioned [6]. - Soybean Oil Inventory: The inventory data on August 22 shows a certain trend, and historical inventory data charts are provided [2][7]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: Historical inventory data charts are provided [9][10]. - Oil Mill Soybean Crushing: Historical data charts are provided [11][12]. - Palm Oil Inventory: Historical inventory data charts are provided [17][18]. - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: Historical inventory data charts are provided [19][20]. - Rapeseed Inventory: Historical inventory data charts are provided [21][22]. - Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory: Historical inventory data charts are provided [23][24]. Demand - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Historical consumption data charts are provided [13][14]. - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Historical consumption data charts are provided [15][16].
大越期货油脂早报-20250912
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-12 02:32