甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol trading follows the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price on the futures market is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. It's not advisable to bottom - fish yet, and attention should be paid to import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - For polyethylene, the overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - Polypropylene inventory shows upstream and mid - stream destocking. The basis is - 60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 700, and the export situation is good. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure under the background of over - capacity. The supply pressure can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls [7]. - For PVC, the basis remains stable. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. The current static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, and attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From September 5th to 11th, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions showed certain fluctuations, and the import profit and other indicators also changed slightly. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 10 from September 10th to 11th [2]. - Viewpoint: The trading logic is the port pressure transmission to the inland. The inland has seasonal and new device stocking demand, but the port's reverse flow will impact the inland. The current valuation, inventory, and driving forces are not ideal for bottom - fishing [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From September 5th to 11th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 840. The prices of different types of polyethylene in different regions had minor changes, and the import profit and other indicators also showed some adjustments. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2695 from September 10th to 11th [6]. - Viewpoint: The overall inventory is neutral. The import profit is around - 200. The domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From September 5th to 11th, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6540 to 6680. The prices of polypropylene in different regions and other related indicators had certain fluctuations. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - Viewpoint: The inventory shows upstream and mid - stream destocking. The basis is - 60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 700, and the export is good. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure [7]. PVC - Price Data: From September 5th to 11th, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2400 on September 8th - 11th, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 5 from September 10th to 11th. The prices of PVC in different regions and other related indicators had minor changes [7]. - Viewpoint: The basis remains stable. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak, and the mid - upstream inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, as well as factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [7].