大越期货PVC期货早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. - The positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12]. - The negatives are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventories, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positives: supply resumption, calcium carbide and ethylene cost support, export advantages [12] - Negatives: overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventories, weak domestic and external demand [12] - Main logic: strong overall supply pressure, poor domestic demand recovery [13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,617.05 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Others - On September 11th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 138 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.25 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% [9]. - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [9]. - The net position of the main contract holders is short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Overall inventory is at a high level. Current demand may remain weak. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,857 - 4,919 [9].