天然橡胶产业期现日报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have changed little. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Log Industry - Currently, the log market shows a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and traders' import enthusiasm has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be low. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several weeks. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. As it gradually enters the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves. The current valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of exploring the bottom. In the context of the peak - season expectation game, the strategy suggests buying on dips [3]. Industrial Silicon Industry - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, so the cost center of industrial silicon will rise in the future. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced. Therefore, the strategy suggests buying on dips, but also note that while the output increases, the inventory and warehouse receipts are also increasing, and supply pressure is beginning to show. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon Industry - In September, although there is production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall reduction in supply is not obvious. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory accumulation pattern in September. The downstream has replenished inventory significantly since late August, and the spot price transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the futures market trades more on policy expectations rather than fundamentals, and short - term price fluctuations are likely to occur, so caution is needed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Soda Ash - The futures market lacks a main trading logic and shows a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced - production devices have resumed, and the weekly output has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry ends, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [6]. Glass - The spot market had good transactions this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market, but the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. Currently, the factory inventory in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the middle - stream inventory has not been significantly reduced. In terms of industry supply and demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the low - emissivity (Low - E) glass production start - up rate remains low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, at the bottom of the real - estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry ultimately needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see; in the medium - term, pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.00% to 14,900 yuan/ton on September 11 compared to September 10. The basis of some varieties changed, such as the basis of a certain variety decreasing by 8.06% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by 1.61%, 12.09%, and - 2.17% respectively, while China's production decreased by 1.30. The weekly start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse and general - trade warehouse increased [1]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter on September 11, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major benchmark delivery - grade spot logs remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased, with the national coniferous log inventory at 2.94 million cubic meters as of September 5 [3]. Demand - The daily average shipment volume decreased slightly last week but remained above 60,000 cubic meters, with the daily average shipment volume at 61,200 cubic meters as of September 5 [3]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract - The prices of various types of industrial silicon, such as East China oxygen - passing S15530, East China SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon, increased, and the basis of some varieties also increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreasing by 5032.35% [4]. Fundamental Data - The national production of industrial silicon increased by 14.01%, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan also increased. The start - up rates in different regions increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32%. The inventory in different regions and the social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon materials and silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, but the N - type material basis decreased by 61.80% [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 1.56%, and the spreads between different contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 30.60% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers also changed, with the net export volume of polysilicon decreasing and that of silicon wafers increasing [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 4.34% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in different regions and different contracts changed, with the 05 basis of glass decreasing by 10.92% [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in different regions and different contracts increased slightly, while the 05 basis of soda ash decreased by 11.32% [6]. Supply - The soda ash start - up rate increased by 1.24%, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.25%, the float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate were 0.09%, - 2.43%, - 0.03%, and - 6.50% respectively [6].