大越期货甲醇早报-20250912

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the context of the contradiction between weak reality caused by high supply and strong expectations, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. Inland prices are expected to continue narrow - range consolidation, while the port market will maintain high volatility and strong linkage, with both ups and downs. Attention should be paid to the restart time of the main olefin plants at the port and low - buying opportunities under market speculation. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2380 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The 2025 - 09 - 12 methanol morning report is from Dayue Futures' investment consulting department, with details of the analyst including name, qualification numbers, and contact information [1]. - The report is not a futures trading consulting service, and its views and information are for reference only [1]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some device shutdowns (Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), reduced methanol production in Iran and low port inventory, new product output from a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong, and methanol procurement by northwest CTO factories [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Resumption of previously shut - down devices (Inner Mongolia Donghua), expected concentrated vessel arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operation, certain profit margins in coal - to - methanol production and active sales, and inventory accumulation in some factories in the production area due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: High supply and weak reality coexist with strong expectations. Inland start - up is increasing, and port inventory is high, but there is still some demand expectation before the National Day holiday [5]. - Price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 87, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 1.2673 million tons, an increase of 122,700 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 87,900 tons to 891,500 tons [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with varying start - up and shut - down times and reasons, including planned maintenance, unplanned shutdowns, and device failures [57]. - Overseas Devices: Some overseas methanol plants are under maintenance or have unstable operations, such as some plants in Iran, Qatar, etc. [58]. - Olefin Devices: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, and some have plans for production expansion or start - up [59].