工业硅期货早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - Cost: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - Other factors: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - Other factors: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - Industrial Silicon: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - Polysilicon: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial Silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - Silicon Wafers: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - Battery Cells: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - Photovoltaic Components: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - Photovoltaic Accessories: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - Component Composition Cost - Profit: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].