大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14] - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,580 - 72,420 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][10] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][10] - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 73,549 yuan/ton, a 0.46% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,761 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 is 77,368 yuan/ton, a 0.44% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,563 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [9] - Other factors: On September 11, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,850 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased [10][11] -利多 factors: Manufacturers' production cut and shutdown plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [12] -利空 factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Market Data Overview: The table shows the changes in prices, basis, and upstream prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide. For example, the price of lithium ore (6%) decreased by 0.59%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.82% [15] - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41% with no change. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.46%, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96%, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% [19] - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3.39%, and the monthly production increased by 4.96%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84%, and the monthly export increased by 34.94% [19]