Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have changed little. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output during the peak season in the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high prices; if the supply is restricted, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: On September 11, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.00%) from the previous day. The basis of the Panorama Star was - 1005, down 75 (-8.06%). The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread was - 82, down 5 (-0.51%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 35, up 10 (22.22%); the 5 - 9 spread was 1020, down 5 (-0.49%) [1]. - Fundamentals: In July, Thailand's rubber production was 421.60 (up 1.61% from the previous month), Indonesia's was 197.50 (up 12.09%), India's was 45.00 (down 2.17%), and China's was 101.30 (down 1.30). The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires was 73.46% (up 5.99 percentage points), and that of all - steel tires was 65.59% (up 5.81 percentage points). Domestic tire production in July was 94.364 million pieces (down 8.16%), and tire exports were 66.65 million pieces (up 10.51%). The total import of natural rubber in July was 474,800 tons (up 2.47%) [1]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory was 602,295 tons, down 3908 tons (-0.64%); the factory - warehouse futures inventory of NR on the SHFE was 46,569 tons, up 907 tons (1.99%) [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and traders' enthusiasm for imports has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and supply in September is expected to remain at a low level. Inventory is low and has been decreasing for several consecutive weeks. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. The current futures valuation is relatively low, and it is in a stage of bottom - seeking. In the context of the seasonal peak season expectation, the strategy is to go long at low prices [3]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 11, the 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The new round of FOB prices has weakened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. - Cost: Import Cost Calculation: The import theoretical cost was 797.91 yuan, down 13.83 yuan (-2%) from the previous day. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.118 [3]. - Supply: The port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 166.6 million cubic meters, down 6.7 million cubic meters (-3.87%) from the previous month. The number of ships arriving at the port was 44, down 3 (-6.38%). As of August 29, the total inventory of softwood logs in China was 294 million cubic meters, down 3 million cubic meters (-1.01%) [3]. - Demand: The average daily outbound volume in China was 61,200 cubic meters, down 800 cubic meters (-1.29%) from August 29 [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, leading to an upward shift in the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. The strategy is to go long at low prices, but attention should be paid to the increase in inventory and warehouse receipts [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract: On September 11, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (1.10%) from the previous day; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (1.06%); the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (1.18%) [4]. - Inter - month Spreads: The 2509 - 2510 spread was - 8725, down 8555 (-5032.35%); the 2510 - 2511 spread was 0, up 25 (40.00%); the 2511 - 2512 spread remained unchanged at - 360 [4]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): National industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, up 47,400 tons (14.01%) from the previous month; Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, up 19,400 tons (12.91%); Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, up 17,000 tons (41.19%); Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, up 5200 tons (10.72%). The national operating rate was 55.87%, up 3.26 percentage points (6.20%) [4]. - Inventory Changes: The weekly inventory in Xinjiang was 121,700 tons, up 2300 tons (1.93%); in Yunnan, it was 29,400 tons, up 800 tons (2.62%); in Sichuan, it remained unchanged at 22,800 tons. The weekly social inventory was 539,000 tons, up 2000 tons (0.37%) [4]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View In September, although there is some production reduction on the supply side, factory restarts will make up for the supply, resulting in an insignificant overall supply decrease. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The spot price transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the futures market will focus more on policy expectations, and short - term price fluctuations may be significant, so caution is required [5]. Summary by Directory - Spot Prices and Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 51,550 yuan/ton; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48,500 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) was - 2160 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton (-61.80%) [5]. - Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads: The main contract price was 53,710 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan/ton (1.56%) from the previous day. The current - month - to - first - continuous spread was 1735 yuan/ton, down 765 yuan/ton (-30.60%) [5]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly): The silicon wafer production was 13.88 GW, up 0.10 GW (0.73%); the polysilicon production was 31,200 tons, up 1000 tons (3.31%) [5]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): The polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, up 24,900 tons (23.31%); the polysilicon import volume was 1100 tons, up 300 tons (40.30%); the polysilicon export volume was 2200 tons, up 100 tons (5.96%); the net polysilicon export volume was 1100 tons, down 200 tons (-14.92%) [5]. - Inventory Changes: The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons, up 8000 tons (3.79%); the silicon wafer inventory was 165,500 tons, down 3000 tons (-1.78%) [5]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - Soda Ash: The futures market lacks a trading logic and is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not increase this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced production capacity has resumed, and the weekly production has returned to the high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium - term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry, with high supply, the inventory will face further pressure without actual capacity exit or production reduction. Track policy implementation and soda ash plant production adjustment. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - selling can be considered on price rebounds [6]. - Glass: The spot market had good transactions this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market. The specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. Currently, the inventory of manufacturers in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, while the middle - stream inventory has not significantly decreased. In terms of industry supply and demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass remains low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, capacity clearance is needed to solve the oversupply problem. Track the implementation of policies in various regions and the inventory - building performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short - term, stay on the sidelines; in the medium - term, pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Prices and Spreads: On September 12, the North China glass price was 1150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.86%); the East China price was 1220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.83%); the Central China price remained unchanged at 1110 yuan/ton; the South China price remained unchanged at 1240 yuan/ton [6]. - Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads: The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton; the East China and Central China prices remained unchanged at 1250 yuan/ton; the Northwest price remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply: The soda ash operating rate was 86.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the weekly soda ash production was 761,100 tons, up 9000 tons (1.25%); the daily melting volume of float glass was 160,200 tons, up 600 tons (0.38%); the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [6]. - Inventory: The glass inventory was 61.583 million weight boxes, down 1.467 million weight boxes (-2.33%); the soda ash factory inventory was 1.7975 million tons, down 25,000 tons (-1.35%); the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 555,500 tons, up 15,000 tons (2.70%) [6]. - Real - estate Data (Year - on - Year): The new construction area was - 0.09%, up 0.09 percentage points; the construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43 percentage points; the completion area was - 0.22%, down 0.03 percentage points; the sales area was - 6.55%, down 6.50 percentage points [6].
广发期货：《特殊商品》日报-20250912
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-12 03:41