日评-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - Stock Index: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - Treasury Bond: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - Steel: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - Iron Ore: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - Coking Coal: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - Coke: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - Urea: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - PX: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - PTA: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short - fiber: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle Chip: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Caustic Soda: Wait and see [2]. - PVC: Hold short positions [2]. - Pure Benzene: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - Styrene: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - LLDPE: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - PP: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - Methanol: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - Soybean Meal: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - Hog: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - Corn: Short at high prices [2]. - Oil: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - Sugar: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - Cotton: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - Egg: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - Apple: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - Jujube: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - Soda Ash: Short on rebounds [2]. - Glass: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - Rubber: Wait and see [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].