永安期货：集运早报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Week39 ship - line average is $1660 (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk), the basis of contract 10 is - 53 points, and the spread between contracts 10 and 12 is - 405.3 points. The spot price has little change today. The price of contract 10 on the disk drops significantly because the spot price breaks through the previous low of the year, indicating the edge of ship - line competition. The valuation space below contract 10 decreases significantly, and position reduction can be considered. The price of contract 12 also drops, and the change in the spread between contracts 10 and 12 is small and relatively reasonable. Currently, the cargo is still in the spot downward period, the ship - line loading rate is not high, and the overall driving force is still downward [2][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures - For EC2510, the closing price is 1203.8, with a change of - 5.02%, trading volume of 32766, open interest of 49507, and an open - interest change of 2187 [2][23] - For EC2512, the closing price is 1609.1, with a change of - 3.88%, trading volume of 10045, open interest of 19025, and an open - interest change of 1417 [2][23] - For EC2602, the closing price is 1497.4, with a change of - 1.75%, trading volume of 1268, open interest of 6001, and an open - interest change of 59 [2][23] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1242.0, with a change of - 0.32%, trading volume of 919, open interest of 7791, and an open - interest change of 279 [2][23] - For FC2606, the closing price is 1430.6, with a change of - 0.92%, trading volume of 67, and open interest of 963 [2][23] Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 405.3, compared to - 406.6 the previous day and - 414.2 the day before the previous day, with a change of 1.3 and a week - on - week change of - 5.0 [2][23] - The spread of FC2512 - 2602 is 111.7, compared to 150.0 the previous day and 155.5 the day before the previous day, with a change of - 38.3 and a week - on - week change of - 61.9 [2][23] Indicators - SCHIS is updated weekly, and on September 8, 2025, it is 1566.46 points, down 11.68% from the previous period and 10.88% from the period before the previous period [2][23] - SCFI (European line) is updated at a certain frequency, and on September 5, 2025, it is $1315/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period and 11.21% from the period before the previous period [2][23] - CCFI is updated at a certain frequency, and on September 5, 2025, it is 1638.77 points, down 2.79% from the previous period and 4.09% from the period before the previous period [2][23] - NCFI is updated at a certain frequency, and on September 5, 2025, it is 855.93 points, down 7.92% from the previous period and 14.23% from the period before the previous period [2][23] Recent European Line Quotations - Week37: The average quotation is $2100 (equivalent to 1450 points on the disk). Among them, MSK quotes $1900 (later raised to $1950), PA quotes $2100 - 2150, and OA quotes $2100 - 2300 [2][23] - Week38: The average quotation is $1800 (equivalent to 1260 points on the disk). Among them, MSK quotes $1700 (later raised to $1760), PA & MSC quote $1800 - 1950, and OA quotes $1650 - 2020 [2][23] - Week39: The average quotation is $1660 (equivalent to 1150 points on the disk). Among them, MSK quotes $1550, PA's quotation drops to $1600 - 1700, and OA quotes $1650 - 1700 [2][23] Related News - On September 11, a Hamas spokesman stated that the cease - fire conditions in Gaza remain unchanged, and the US and Israel are conspiring to undermine the negotiation process - On September 12, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved a plan to build 3401 housing units in the "E1 area" between the Jewish settlement of Ma'ale Adumim in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Netanyahu declared that the eastern border of Israel will be the Jordan Valley, not Ma'ale Adumim, and that "everything starting in Gaza will end in Gaza, and we will defeat Hamas, and the Palestinian state will cease to exist." The expansion of Jewish settlements in the "E1 area" will divide the West Bank into two north - south regions, preventing the Palestinian areas of East Jerusalem, Bethlehem, and Ramallah from being connected, and creating a continuous Jewish community between Jerusalem and Ma'ale Adumim. This plan has been opposed by the international community and has also sparked intense controversy within Israel [2][23]