Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market gradually weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. The offer price of imported rubber rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down compared to the previous week. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for domestic natural rubber significantly increased, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market warmed up [9]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the supply is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, local rainfall has affected tapping operations, slowing the seasonal increase in new rubber supply [9]. - Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the decline rate has widened compared to the previous period. However, as tire manufacturers' risk - aversion sentiment towards high prices rises, the decline rate of general trade inventory may narrow [9]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly increased. Most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule next week to stock up inventory around the "National Day" and make up for previous order gaps [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: The bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. Imported rubber prices rose and then fell, while domestic rubber trading warmed up [9]. - Market Outlook: Supply in Yunnan is increasing, and in Hainan, rainfall affects tapping. Qingdao Port inventory is decreasing, but the decline in general trade inventory may narrow. Tire enterprise capacity utilization has increased and is expected to fluctuate slightly [9]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,300, and the nr2511 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price Trend: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 3.09% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell by 4.42% [14]. - Spread: As of September 11, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 [24]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 11, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, a decrease of 9,290 tons from the previous week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, an increase of 202 tons from the previous week [29]. - Spot Market - Price: As of September 11, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [33]. - Basis: As of September 11, the 20 - rubber basis was 629 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton from the previous week; the non - standard basis was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [41]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - Thailand: As of September 11, the field glue price in Thailand was 56.2 (+0.4) Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 (+0.15) Thai baht/kg. As of September 12, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.4 US dollars/ton from the previous week [44]. - Domestic: As of September 11, the glue price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [47]. - Import: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [50]. - Inventory: As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66% [54]. - Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [58]. - Tire Exports: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [61]. - Domestic Demand: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [64]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information about the options market analysis is provided in the report.
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:33