Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market in China dropped from a high level, with the spot price ranging from 11,500 to 11,900 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,900 and 12,000 yuan/ton as of September 11, 2025 [7]. - The supply of cis - butadiene rubber was sufficient this week. Although some private production plants stopped for maintenance, the inventory of producers and traders increased. Next week, the reduction in supply will gradually appear, and the inventory may decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [7]. - The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,400 and 12,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped from a high level, and the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies was reduced by 200 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Supply reduction will be gradually reflected next week. After the price cuts of cis - butadiene rubber and butadiene, the spot price may drive some downstream enterprises to stock up, and the inventory may decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to maintain the current level with slight fluctuations [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,400 and 12,000 yuan in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 5.2% [11]. - Position Analysis: No detailed analysis content provided. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of September 11, the spread between the 10 - and 11 - month contracts of butadiene rubber was 30 [17]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 11, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,970 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of September 11, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Raw Material Prices: As of September 11, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 604 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.75 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Inventory: As of September 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week; the port inventory was 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons from last week [30]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity Utilization: In August 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of September 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68% from last week [33]. - Production Profit: As of September 11, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 34,510 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons from last week [40]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [43]. - Tire Exports: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [47].
合成橡胶市场周报-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:33