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热轧卷板市场周报:终端需求韧性较强,热卷期价震荡偏强-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:44
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coils is expected to be oscillating upward, with strong technical support around 3300. The recommended trading range is 3300 - 3400. The macro - environment has the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rising and tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment. The industry shows that hot - rolled coil production has increased, terminal demand is resilient, inventory has declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. Cost support has strengthened due to increased iron - water production boosting furnace - charge demand [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3364 yuan/ton (+24), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coils was 3410 yuan/ton (+10). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 325.14 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 22.97 million tons. - Apparent demand rose to 326.16 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 12.22 million tons. - Factory inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. Total inventory was 373.32 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 57.89 million tons. - The steel - mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a 0.87 - percentage - point decrease from last week but a 54.11 - percentage - point increase from last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: Overseas, the weak US non - farm payrolls in August increased the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation, and Mexico planned to raise import tariffs. Domestically, multiple ministries announced work priorities to promote capacity management and support employment and foreign trade. - Supply - and - demand aspect: Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory slightly declined, and apparent demand increased. - Cost aspect: Iron ore prices were firm due to lower shipments and increased iron - water production. Coke prices were cut, but coking - coal futures were oscillating upward due to mine shutdowns and increased furnace - charge demand. - Technical aspect: The HC2601 contract was oscillating upward, with strong support around 3300 and trading above MA10/MA20. The MACD showed a possible golden cross below the 0 - axis with shrinking green bars. - Strategy suggestion: Considering the macro and industrial situations, the HC2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the 3300 - 3400 range, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures price: The HC2601 contract was oscillating upward this week. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of 31 yuan/ton on the 12th, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse receipts and positions: Shanghai Futures Exchange hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts increased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased. On September 12, the warehouse - receipt volume was 59441 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34382 tons, and the net short position was 102712 contracts, a decrease of 10791 contracts from last week [21]. - Spot price: Spot prices increased. On September 12, the spot price of Shanghai 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils was 3410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton. The basis was 46 yuan/ton on the 12th, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [25]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions - Raw - material prices: On September 12, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [31]. - Arrival volume: From September 1 - 7, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased. The global iron - ore shipment volume was 2756.2 million tons, a decrease of 800.6 million tons. The Australia - Brazil iron - ore shipment volume was 2329.6 million tons, a decrease of 572.5 million tons [35]. - Port inventory: This week, iron - ore port inventory increased. The total inventory at 47 ports was 14456.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.40 million tons. The daily average port - clearance volume was 344.39 million tons, an increase of 14.06 million tons. On September 11, the steel - billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 128.95 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.58 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 11.82 million tons [39]. - Coking - plant situation: This week, the coking - plant capacity utilization rate increased to 75.58% (+2.97%), and coke inventory increased to 43.91 million tons (+3.2). The total coking - coal inventory decreased to 752.00 million tons (-28.95), and the available coking - coal days decreased to 10.6 days (-0.86) [43]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply Side - Steel production and trade: In July 2025, national crude - steel production was 7966 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude - steel production was 59447 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, steel exports were 951 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons, and imports were 50.0 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons [46]. - Blast - furnace operation: On September 11, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 enterprises was 325.14 million tons, an increase of 10.9 million tons from last week. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83% on September 12, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points, and the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points [48][50]. - Inventory: On September 11, the in - factory hot - rolled coil inventory was 80.88 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons from last week, and the social inventory in 33 cities was 292.44 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 million tons. The total inventory was 373.32 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons [55]. 3.4.2. Demand Side - Automobile and home - appliance industries: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to July, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 18345.54 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; household refrigerators were 5963.15 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; and household washing machines were 6812.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [58].