玉米类市场周报：续涨动能略显不足，玉米期价止涨回落-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The upward momentum of corn futures is insufficient, and the price has stopped rising and fallen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For corn, the USDA crop growth report shows a decline in the excellent - good ratio, increasing the expectation of a production cut. Domestically, the supply is increasing while the short - term purchasing power of downstream enterprises is weak, but the higher opening price of new - season corn has a positive impact on the market mood. For corn starch, the industry's operating rate is low, the inventory pressure has decreased, but the inventory is still high, and the substitution advantage of other starches is squeezing the market demand. It is also recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][13] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Corn: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's crop growth report showed that as of September 7, 2025, the excellent - good ratio of US corn was 68%. Domestically, the supply is increasing, and the short - term purchasing power of downstream enterprises is weak. However, the higher opening price of new - season corn has a positive impact on the market mood. The upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient, and the bulls tend to take profits [8][9][10] - Corn Starch: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous week. Currently, the raw material corn in the north is in the stage of new - old alternation. Some enterprises have new overhauls, and the industry's operating rate is low. The inventory pressure has decreased, but the inventory is still high, and the substitution of other starches is squeezing the market demand. It is affected by the decline of corn and its own weak demand, and the overall trend is weaker than that of corn [14] 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - Futures Price and Position Changes: The 11 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 851,763 lots, a decrease of 63,874 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 217,054 lots, an increase of 19,202 lots from the previous week [19] - Top 20 Net Position Changes: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 44,942, and the net short position decreased compared with last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 47,970, and the net short position increased compared with last week [25] - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 47,454 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 9,950 lots [31] - Spot Price and Basis: As of September 11, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2365.49 yuan/ton, and the basis between the 11 - month active contract of corn and the average spot price was + 168 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, with a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 326 yuan/ton [36][41] - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 30 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 13 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [47] - Futures Spread: The spread between the 11 - month contract of starch and corn was 277 yuan/ton. In the 37th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 416 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous week [55] - Substitute Spread: As of September 11, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2426 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2365.49 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 60.51 yuan/ton. In the 37th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 223 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week [60] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - Corn - Supply Side - Port Inventory: As of September 5, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 65.6 tons, a decrease of 7.90 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 94.5 tons, a decrease of 18.2 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume of the four northern ports was 33.7 tons, an increase of 9.70 tons week - on - week [51] - Monthly Import Volume: In July 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1.03 million tons or 94.50% compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month [69] - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of September 11, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.91 days, a decrease of 0.72 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.16% [73] - Demand Side - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million [77] - Breeding Profit: As of September 5, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 52.65 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 126.24 yuan/head [81] - Processing Enterprise Profit: As of September 11, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 154 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 415 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 730 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 257 yuan/ton [86] 3.4. Industry Chain Situation - Corn Starch - Supply Side - Enterprise Inventory: As of September 10, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 2.487 million tons, a decrease of 8.26% [90] - Starch Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory: From September 4 to September 10, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 510,300 tons, a decrease of 5200 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 243,900 tons, a decrease of 2900 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 47.14%, a decrease of 0.56% from the previous week. As of September 10, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.226 million tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons from the previous week, a weekly decrease of 3.08%, a monthly decrease of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 40.27% [94] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - As of September 12, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.08%, a decrease of 0.31% from 9.39% in the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and decreased this week, at a slightly high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [97]