降息预期VS供需暂弱，沪铜或将震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate due to the contrast between the expected interest rate cut and the temporarily weak supply - demand situation. The fundamentals show a slight contraction in supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract was oscillating and slightly stronger, with a weekly increase of +1.15% and an amplitude of 2.23%. The closing price of the main contract was 81,060 yuan/ton [6] - Macroeconomic Data: In the US, the CPI in August was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations; 0.4% month - on - month, slightly higher than the expected 0.3%. In China, the CPI in August was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [6] - Fundamentals: The copper concentrate TC spot index is in the negative range, and the concentrate price is firm, providing cost support. Supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is tight, limiting smelter capacity. High copper prices suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, and the peak season has not yet boosted demand [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Contract and Price Changes: As of September 12, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 305 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 215 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 81,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 920 yuan/ton, and the position was 186,876 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 276 lots. The 1 electrolytic copper spot average price was 80,755 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 865 yuan/ton [11][14] - Premium and Position: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 59 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 5,654 lots, a decrease of 4,804 lots from last week [23] - Option Volatility: As of September 12, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper at - the - money option contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.7237, a week - on - week increase of 0.0146 [28] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Price and Processing Fee: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 71,290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,080 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [31] - Import and Spread: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth of 8.96% and a year - on - year growth of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 2,539.89 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,222.31 yuan/ton [37] - Production and Inventory: As of June 2025, the global copper concentrate monthly production was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The domestic seven - port copper concentrate inventory was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [42] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined Copper Production: As of July 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46% and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. As of June 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 45 thousand tons from May, a growth of 1.89% [47] - Refined Copper Import: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss was - 489.44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 982.81 yuan/ton [52][53] - Inventory: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory decreased by 3,775 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 4,489 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipt increased by 6,633 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 149,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons [56] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%. The monthly import volume was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, a growth of 4.35% and a year - on - year growth of 9.09% [60] - Application Fields: As of July 2025, the cumulative investment in power and grid construction increased by 3.4% and 12.5% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [66] - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [73] 3.6 Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand Balance: As of June 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [78]