棉花（纱）市场周报-20250912

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 decreased by about 1.0% this week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Attention should be paid to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory. Internationally, the US cotton export signing and shipment volumes decreased significantly. Domestically, the inventory remains low, the market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and the spinning mills' startup rate remains low. [6][7][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Wait and see for the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract in the short - term [6] - Future trading tips: Monitor foreign cotton price changes, demand, and inventory [7] - Market review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 decreased by about 1.0% this week [7] - Market outlook: Internationally, the US cotton export signing and shipment volumes decreased significantly. Domestically, the inventory is low, the market supply is tight, downstream orders increased slightly, and the spinning mills' startup rate remains low [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Cotton Market - The price of the US Cotton December contract increased by about 0.75% this week. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,472 lots, an increase of 3,012 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 118,684 lots, an increase of 13,618 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 48,212 lots, an increase of 10,606 lots from the previous week [11] 3.2.2 Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average of the previous 4 weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 77.85 cents per pound, a 0.35 - cent increase from last week [16] 3.2.3 Futures Market - The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 1.0% this week, and the price of the Cotton Yarn Futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.60%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 29,297 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 288 lots. The number of cotton futures warrants at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,017, and that of cotton yarn futures was 90 [21][27][33] 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price index of Cotton 3128B was 15,248 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese Cotton Yarn C32S was 20,745 yuan per ton. The CY index for OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton, and for OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,880 yuan per ton [41][52] 3.2.5 Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of September 11, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,176 yuan per ton, a 48 - yuan increase from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,319 yuan per ton, a 70 - yuan increase from last week. The price indices of imported cotton yarn (FCY Index) for port pick - up prices of C21S, C32S, and JC32S were 20,180 yuan per ton, 21,235 yuan per ton, and 23,080 yuan per ton respectively [56] 3.2.6 Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of September 11, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 1,110 yuan per ton, a 227 - yuan decrease from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,967 yuan per ton, a 249 - yuan decrease from last week [59] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a 1.85% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a 66.67% increase from the previous month. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month [62][69] 3.3.2 Mid - end Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a 2.43% decrease from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a 2.95% decrease from the previous month [72] 3.3.3 Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 11,604.009 million US dollars, a 3.69% decrease from the previous month. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 15,161.759 million US dollars, a 0.69% decrease from the previous month. As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a 12.73% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.9%, a 6.45% decrease from the previous month [78][82] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - related Market - No specific analysis content provided for the options market, only mentioned the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week. For the stock market, only the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was presented [83][86]