工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅冲高回落平缓，消息驱动依旧持续-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon decreased by 0.85% and polysilicon dropped by 5.51%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a volatile trend, while the polysilicon futures market was in a downward - oscillating state [4]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side shows a regional differentiation pattern of "steady production increase in the northwest and capacity shrinkage in the southwest". The demand from the downstream organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors has different impacts on industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand from the three downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat. The polysilicon market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation next week [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand relationship is characterized by increasing supply and weakening demand. Although the price has been strongly pulled up recently, the long - term demand may be restricted [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Market Performance: Industrial silicon decreased by 0.85% this week, and polysilicon dropped by 5.51%. The industrial silicon futures market was volatile, and the polysilicon futures market oscillated downward [4]. - Market Outlook: - Industrial Silicon: The supply side shows regional differentiation. In the demand side, the organic silicon market has a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon, the polysilicon industry has an increasing demand but may be restricted in the long - term, and the aluminum alloy industry has limited demand for industrial silicon [4]. - Polysilicon: The supply - demand relationship is "supply increase, demand decrease". It is expected to show a high - level oscillation next week [4]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with an oscillation range of 52000 - 58000 and a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Industrial Silicon: The futures price decreased this week, the spot price increased, and the basis weakened. As of September 11, 2025, the spot price was 9200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 460 yuan/ton [10][12]. - Polysilicon: Both the futures and spot prices increased this week, and the basis strengthened. As of September 11, 2025, the spot price was 51.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2160 yuan/g [14][16]. - Industrial Silicon Production: As of September 11, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 85100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.60% [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Cost: This week, the raw materials and electricity prices of industrial silicon remained flat. During the wet season, the overall cost remained low. The electricity price in the northwest region was adjusted to 0.30 yuan/kWh, and the electricity price in Baoshan was 0.29 yuan/kWh [21][24]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 11, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of industrial silicon was 50093 lots, up 21 lots from last week [28]. - Organic Silicon: This week, the output and operating rate of organic silicon increased. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly output was 47800 tons, up 3%, and the weekly operating rate was 72.71%, up 3%. However, the profit decreased, and it is expected that the output will decrease in the future, reducing the demand for industrial silicon [30][35][37]. - Aluminum Alloy: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory continued to rise. As of September 11, 2025, the price was 20800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 70800 tons, up 12900 tons from last week. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will be negative [43][45]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased. As of September 11, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.45 yuan/piece, up 0.03 yuan/piece from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.3 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W from last week. It is expected that the demand for polysilicon will increase slightly [50][52]. - Polysilicon: This week, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the profit was 11940 yuan/ton, the average cost was 39610 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 276000 tons [57][61].