沪铅市场周报：联储议息即将来临，沪铅需求有望增加-20250912

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2510 rising by 0.83%. It is expected that there will still be upward momentum next week [6]. - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has soared, enhancing the expectation of loose market liquidity. On the supply side, the production of primary lead has recovered, while the production release of secondary lead has slowed down. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries is expected to increase, and the demand in emerging energy - storage fields is also improving. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, the demand will recover slightly, and it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [6]. - The main Shanghai lead contract 2510 will mainly fluctuate upward, with a fluctuation range of 16800 - 17300 and a stop - loss range of 16600 - 17400. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: This week, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated upward. The main contract 2510 was active, rising by 0.83%. Driven by the new highs of gold and other non - ferrous metals, it is expected to continue rising next week [6]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomic data in the US is weak, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The production of primary lead has recovered, while the production of secondary lead is restricted. The demand for lead - acid batteries is expected to increase, but the overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory remains unchanged, and the demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: The domestic futures price of Shanghai lead has risen slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price has remained flat, and the ratio has increased. As of September 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures price was $1938 per ton, the active - contract lead futures price was 16850 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.71 [8][12]. - Basis and Premium: The domestic futures basis has weakened, and the foreign premium has also weakened. As of September 11, 2025, the Chinese futures basis was - 75 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 42.99 dollars per ton [14][16]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Foreign lead inventories have decreased, domestic inventories have decreased, warehouse receipt numbers have increased, and the overall Shanghai lead inventory has decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the total lead inventory was 6.28 tons (down 0.25 million tons), the LME lead inventory was 232625 tons (down 15575 tons), and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt number was 59737 tons (up 4693 tons) [32][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - Side - Primary Lead: The operating rate and production of primary lead enterprises have increased, but the overall impact is not significant. As of September 4, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 82.56% (up 4.36% from last week), and the weekly production was 3.78 million tons (up 0.07 million tons from last week) [20][22]. - Supply - Side - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate and production of secondary lead enterprises have decreased. It is currently in the off - season, and it is expected to recover next week. As of September 4, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 1.34 million tons (down 0.58 million tons month - on - month), and the average capacity utilization rate was 35.14% (down 10.65% month - on - month) [26][30]. - Supply - Side - Trade: In July 2025, the export of refined lead decreased, while the import of refined lead increased significantly. There was an arbitrage opportunity due to the price difference between overseas and domestic markets and the low domestic processing fee [38][40]. - Demand - Side - Processing Fee: The domestic lead - concentrate processing fee has decreased, while the imported - ore processing fee has remained flat, which is generally negative for domestic production. As of September 5, 2025, the average national processing fee for lead concentrates was 400 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee for imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - 90 dollars per thousand tons [42][44]. - Demand - Side - Automobile: The growth rate of automobile production and sales has increased, and the process of lithium replacing lead has accelerated, leading to a decline in lead demand. In August 2025, the overall automobile sales, passenger - car sales, commercial - vehicle sales, and new - energy vehicle sales all increased to varying degrees [46][49]. - Demand - Side - Battery: The price of lead - acid batteries has remained flat, while the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) has increased. As of September 11, 2025, the average price of waste lead - acid batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 20000 yuan per ton [51][53].