Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The price of the ICE US Sugar October contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [5][11][15]. - Internationally, institutions predict that sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August will increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 9.5% year - on - year to 49.5 million tons. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. Downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking stage, and rigid demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the decline of sugar prices may be limited [5]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term. Future factors to focus on include domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5]. - Market Outlook: International sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, sales in August were lower than usual, but inventory was low. Downstream stocking may support prices, and short - term price decline may be limited [5]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - Future Focus: Domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Futures: The price of the US Sugar October contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 85,805 lots, an increase of 11,067 lots from the previous week [11]. - International Raw Sugar Spot: The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [15]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 51,979 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11,599 [18][23]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread: The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 23 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 430 yuan/ton [27]. - Spot Market: As of September 12, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [34]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 183 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,365 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 177 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production: As of the end of August 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - Supply Side - Industrial Inventory: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [46]. - Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity: In July 2025, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.56% and a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.41% [50]. - Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 1.1388 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an acceleration of 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [54]. - Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production: In July 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [58]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - Option Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but no specific data is given [59]. - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis is given [64].
白糖市场周报-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-12 09:49